Geohazard Susceptibility Evaluation Along the Road in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park Based on Logistic Regression Model

LI Xin; XUE Gui-Cheng; LIU Chang-Zhu; Ma Bo; YANG Yong-Peng; YANG Feng; WANG Xiao-Lin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0013.2023.04.010

2023 Vol. 39, No. 4

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Article navigation > South China Geology > 2023 > 39(4): 694-703

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LI Xin, XUE Gui-Cheng, LIU Chang-Zhu, Ma Bo, YANG Yong-Peng, YANG Feng, WANG Xiao-Lin. 2023. Geohazard Susceptibility Evaluation Along the Road in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park Based on Logistic Regression Model. South China Geology, 39(4): 694-703. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0013.2023.04.010

Citation:

LI Xin, XUE Gui-Cheng, LIU Chang-Zhu, Ma Bo, YANG Yong-Peng, YANG Feng, WANG Xiao-Lin. 2023. Geohazard Susceptibility Evaluation Along the Road in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park Based on Logistic Regression Model. South China Geology, 39(4): 694-703. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.2097-0013.2023.04.010

Geohazard Susceptibility Evaluation Along the Road in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park Based on Logistic Regression Model

1. Hainan Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Geology Resources and Environment, Haikou 5702062, Hainan, China
2. Hainan Geological Survey Institute, Haikou 570206, Hainan, China

Received Date: 07 December 2022

Revised Date: 13 January 2023

Abstract

Abstract

Due to the frequent geohazards along the along the road of tropical rainforest park, it is of great significance to carry out the research on the vulnerability of geological hazards for disaster prevention and reduction. Taking the road in Jianfengling Park as an example, six factors including fault, slope, slope direction, water system, road and rainfall were selected as susceptibility evaluation indexes, and the influencing factors of themin the study area were quantitatively analyzed. Based on GIS platform, the sensitivity evaluation was carried out by using two models of certainty coefficient and certainty coefficient logistic regression. The results show that rainfall, slope and distance of road are main controlling factors affecting the development of geological hazards. The high-prone areas are mainly located along the road with relatively developed geological hazards, and the very low and low-prone areas are located in the high-altitude areas with rare human settlement. The AUC values of CF model and CFLR model are 0.785 and 0.808 respectively, showing that both evaluation models are great reliable and objective. The value from certainty factor compelling logistic regression model (CFLR) has higher accuracy than that of the single certainty factor model (CF). The research will provide scientific basis for geological hazard assessment and disaster prevention and reduction in the study area.
- geological disasters /
- certainty factor /
- susceptibility /
- logistic regression /
- National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest /

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References

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