| China Geological Survey Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences | Host |
| 科学出版社 | Publish |
| Citation: |
ZHANG Zhaozhi, PAN Zhaoshuai, CHE Dong, YAN Qiang, WU Qing. 2024. Chromite ore resources characteristic and analysis of supply and demand situation from 2021 to 2035 in China[J]. Geology in China, 51(4): 1191-1209. doi: 10.12029/gc20220909002
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Chromite ore resources characteristic and analysis of supply and demand situation from 2021 to 2035 in China
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Abstract
This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.
Objective Chromium, as one of the critical minerals in China, supports the development of China's emerging industries. China is short of chromium ore resources, poor resource endowment and low production. For a long time, the chrome ore has been highly dependent on foreign countries. It is important for the healthy and sustainable development of chromium ore resource industry to study the future supply and demand of chrome ore.
Methods This paper summarizes the geology, spatial distribution, resource reserves and other characteristics of chromium deposits in China, and analyzes the historical data of the development and utilization of chromium resources in China. On this basis, the chromium supply in China is analyzed and predicted. And the stainless steel production and chromium demand in 2021−2035 in China are predicted under three scenarios, namely high, medium and low, by using chromium sector consumption method, S−curve of per capita stainless steel production, ARIMA model method (stainless steel) and other prediction methods.
Results (1) The production of chromium in China will be 150,000−200,000 tons, and the secondary chromium will be 1.82−2.84 million tons from 2021 to 2035; (2) Under the medium scenario, the demand for chromium in China from 2021 to 2035 is projected to follow an increasing and then decreasing trend, with the peak occurring in 2030. And, the per capita stainless steel production will keep an upward trend from 2021 to 2030, and will reach its peak in 2030. At that time, the per capita stainless steel production will be 35 kg, the stainless steel production will be 50.05 million tons, and the chromium demand will be 9.45 million production; After that, it will gradually decline. By 2035, the per capita stainless steel production will drop to 30 kg, the stainless steel production will be 42.8 million tons, and the chromium demand will be 8.07 million tons; (3) The supply and demand situation is severe in China from 2021 to 2035, and the external dependence rate of chromium will exceed 99%. If secondary chromium production is used, the external dependence rate of chromium will drop to more than 69%.
Conclusions The supply and demand situation of chromium in China will still be severe, and the gap still needs to be supplemented by a large number of imported ores from 2021−2035. On this basis, it is proposed to strengthen the geological exploration of chromium ore, strive to achieve a breakthrough in chromium ore prospecting, attach importance to the secondary chromium recovery, develop the secondary chromium recovery industry, strengthen the reserves of chromium ore products, ensure the safety of chromium ore product supply, optimize the structure of chromium ore products, and make use of overseas chromium ore resources and products. The conclusions and suggestions formed in this paper are of practical significance to the compilation of mineral resources planning and the formulation of chromium mineral resources management policies in China.
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References
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ZHANG Zhaozhi, PAN Zhaoshuai, CHE Dong, YAN Qiang, WU Qing. 2024. Chromite ore resources characteristic and analysis of supply and demand situation from 2021 to 2035 in China[J]. Geology in China, 51(4): 1191-1209. doi: 10.12029/gc20220909002
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Figure 1.
Diagram of research technology route and method of chromium ore supply and demand situation analysis
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Figure 2.
Mine production of chromium ore in China and proportion in the world from 1958 to 2020 （Data source: USGS, 1996−2022, https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/chromium-statistics-and-information; Editorial Committee, Chronicles of Chromium Mines in China,1996; Zhu Xun, 1999）
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Figure 3.
Prediction of chromium ore (chromium) production in China from 2021 to 2035 （Data source: USGS, 2000−2020, https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/chromium-statistics-and-information, mine survey）
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Figure 4.
Proportion of secondary chromium production in apparent chromium consumption and per capita GDP in the United States from 1962 to 2020 （Data source : USGS, https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/chromium-statistics-and-information, GDP per capita from the World Bank）
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Figure 5.
Productions of secondary chromium in China from 2004 to 2020
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Figure 6.
Secondary chromium, chromium apparent consumption and stainless steel production in China from 1952 to 2020 （Data source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics from 1979 to 2021, https://world-bureau.co.uk/publications-services/metals-database/）
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Figure 7.
Projected secondary chromium production and per capita production of secondary chromium production in China from 2021 to 2035
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Figure 8.
S−shaped curve between GDP per capita and stainless steel production of the main countries and regions in their different stages of development in the world (The red bold line represents the evolution trend of per capita stainless steel production in China in the future, while the other lines represent the trend lines of per capita stainless steel production evolution in different countries)
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Figure 9.
Relationships between GDP per captia and stainless steel production intensity of the typical countries or regions (Inverted U−shaped curves) (The red bold line represents the trend line in the evolution of stainless steel production intensity in China in the future, while the other lines represent the trend lines of stainless steel production intensity evolution in different countries)
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Figure 10.
S−curve simulation of per capita stainless steel production and GDP in Japan
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Figure 11.
Prediction results of per capita stainless steel production in China from 2021 to 2035 under three scenarios
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Figure 12.
ARIMA simulation results of stainless steel production in China
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Figure 13.
Supply and demand trend of chromium in China from 2021 to 2035 (excluding secondary chromium)
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Figure 14.
Supply and demand trend of chromium in China from 2021 to 2035 (including secondary chromium)