| Citation: |
Fu Wang, Jian-fen Li, Pei-xin Shi, Zhi-wen Shang, Yong Li, Hong Wang, 2019. The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei, China, China Geology, 2, 26-39. doi: 10.31035/cg2018061
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The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei, China
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Abstract
Bulletins of China’s National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km2 is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km2, 4000 km2, 5300 km2 and 7200 km2, respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.
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Keywords:
- sea level rise /
- elevation /
- seawall /
- shoreline /
- Tianjin-Hebei (Jin-Ji) coast
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References
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Fu Wang, Jian-fen Li, Pei-xin Shi, Zhi-wen Shang, Yong Li, Hong Wang, 2019. The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei, China, China Geology, 2, 26-39. doi: 10.31035/cg2018061
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Figure 1.
Sketch map for the coast of Tianjin-Hebei, China (Surface elevation data from DIVA-GIS 7.5,
http://www.diva-gis.org/ ). -
Figure 2.
The current situation of Tianjin and Hebei coastline.
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Figure 3.
Shoreline erosion in the south of the Luanhe Estuary.
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Figure 4.
Variation of the shoreline between Haihe and Dakouhe Estuaries on the west coast of Bohai Bay since the 1870s, i.e., the end of “Little Ice Age (LIA)”.
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Figure 5.
Recession of the residual natural shorelines on the west coast of Bohai Bay, China and erosion of artificial shores since the 1960s. a−The shore on the Dashentang site, Tianjin, China, eroded upper tidal zone protected by wooden piles (photo taken in 2003); b−the shore on the Dashentang site, Tianjin, China, wave erosion and strong scouring on the newly built dyke (photo taken in March, 2018); c−Chengtougu site, Tianjin, China, the old dyke was destroyed by seawater (photo taken in 1998); d−the shore of Qingtuozi Chenier Nature Reserve, Tianjin China. Seawater eroded the Spartina paved muddy tidal flat and shelly chenier, and a 2 m-high cliff has been cut off in the front of chenier. Originally, Spartina anglica was introduced in the middle and late 1990s in order to protect the upper tidal beach, which was continuously eroded since the 1960s. However, by the end of 2010, the grass beach was completely destroyed, and the sea erosion further destroyed the shelly chenier to form the cliff (photo taken in 2010); e−the levee in the shallow sea area near the Beijiang Power Plant in the Binhai new area, China, erosion in the recent years (photo taken in March, 2018); f−the breakwater of the Lingang industrial zone in the Binhai new area was damaged by the storm surge in 2016 (photo taken in March, 2018); g−h−shrimp ponds, excavated in the intertidal zone, were eroded by seawater, the North Fengjiapu site, Huanghua, China (now Bohai new district of Cangzhou) (photo taken in March, 2018); i−in the recent years, the dykes and gates of shrimp ponds located at about 300 m outside the coastal road were eroded by seawater, the high tidal water directly hits the highway subgrade and erodes the base of the utility poles, the north Fengjiapu site, Huanghua, China; j−at the shore of Fengjiapu in Huanghua, China, the blockhouse built in the early 1960’s was submerged under the sea and a cliff height of about 1 m was formed (photo taken in March, 1998); k−at the shore of Laolangtuozi, Huanghua (now the Bohai new district of Cangzhou), China, a sea cliff of 5−7 m high has eroded since the late 1960s to 1970s. As a result, a village with a population of more than 1000 was moved further inland (photo taken in 2000).
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Figure 6.
Recession of the shelly beach by strong wave erosions in Dakouhe-Wangzi, Wudi, China. a−Scouring and erosion of a dyke at the promontory platform of Dakouhe site (photo taken in March, 2018); b−c−at the shoreface of Wangzi village and Dakouhe Estuary, muddy and shelly lagoon facies deposits were exposed due to shoreline recession and the same as Fig. 3d (photo taken in March, 2018); d−during the storm surge 10−11, October, 2003 the modern chenier retreated about 10 m landward and partially covered the depression behind the beach (i.e., the low-lying belt between the modern beach ridge and the old beach ridge on the left side of the photo) (photo taken in October, 2003); e−in March, 2018, due to the continuous landward migration of modern beach sediments, the depression was completely filled up, and even the older beach has been covered (the left side of the photo is the NW direction, the right is the SE direction, photos taken in March, 2018).
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Figure 7.
Holocene eustatic sea-level change (a) and marine and land transition map on the west coast of Bohai Bay (b), China.
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Figure 8.
Flooded areas predicted by various scenarios based on the different storm surge recurrence, as a, b, c and d illustrating inundation areas by a 50 years recurrence period, 100 years recurrence period, 200 years recurrence period and 500 years recurrence period storm surge, respectively.