Lithium resources safety assessment and early warning of China

ZHENG Minggui; LIU Lizhen; YU Ming; LIN Yuhua

doi:10.12097/gbc.2022.08.030

2024 Vol. 43, No. 2~3

Article Contents

Article navigation > Geological Bulletin of China > 2024 > 43(2~3): 197-205

Next Article Previous Article

ZHENG Minggui, LIU Lizhen, YU Ming, LIN Yuhua. 2024. Lithium resources safety assessment and early warning of China. Geological Bulletin of China, 43(2~3): 197-205. doi: 10.12097/gbc.2022.08.030

Citation:

ZHENG Minggui, LIU Lizhen, YU Ming, LIN Yuhua. 2024. Lithium resources safety assessment and early warning of China. Geological Bulletin of China, 43(2~3): 197-205. doi: 10.12097/gbc.2022.08.030

Lithium resources safety assessment and early warning of China

1.
Research Center of Mining Development, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, Jiangxi, China
2.
The School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, Anhui, China

Received Date: 29 August 2022

Revised Date: 10 April 2023

Publish Date: 15 March 2024

Abstract

Abstract

Lithium is an important strategic mineral resource in our country, under the background of lithium resource demand to increase rapidly, relying on import seriously, to our country lithium resource safety early warning analysis is necessary and urgent. Resource endowments, import security, market risk and geopolitics are selected as first-level indicators to construct an index system for the security of China's lithium resources. The constant weight and variable weight models were used to evaluate the security of lithium resources in China from 2009 to 2021. The ARIMA-BP model was used to study the security of lithium resources in China from 2022—2035. The tudy results indicate that: ① External dependence, import concentration and transportation risk are the main factors affecting the security of lithium resources; ② From 2009 to 2021, the safety level of lithium resources in China fluctuated from yellow - basic safety level to orange - unsafe level, The resource endowments and the import security are the main reasons for the low level of resource security; ③ From 2022 to 2035, the security score of China's lithium resources continued to decline. Except for 2026, which were in the yellow -- basic safety level, the rest of the years were in the orange —— unsafe level.
- lithium resources /
- security assessment /
- early warning /
- variable weight /
- ARIMA-BP model

FullText(HTML)

References

[1]	APEC. 2007. A Quest for Energy Security in the 21^st Century[R]. Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre: 5−12. Google Scholar
[2]	USGS. 2022. Lithium statistics and information[EB/OL].https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023−lithium.pdf. Google Scholar
[3]	蔡艳龙, 李建武. 2017. 全球锂资源开发利用形势分析及启示[J]. 地球学报, 38(1): 25−29. doi: 10.3975/cagsb.2017.01.05 CrossRef Google Scholar
[4]	崔晓林. 2017. 中国锂矿资源需求预测及供需分析[D]. 中国地质大学(北京) 硕士学位论文. Google Scholar
[5]	范军. 2016. 我国锂矿资源开发及产业发展策略研究[D]. 中国地质大学(北京) 博士学位论文. Google Scholar
[6]	李康, 王建平. 2016. 中国锂资源开发利用现状及对策建议[J]. 资源与产业, 18(1): 82−86. Google Scholar
[7]	李颖, 陈其慎, 柳群义, 等. 2015. 中国海外矿产资源供应安全评估与形势分析[J]. 资源科学, 37(5): 900−907. Google Scholar
[8]	廖秋敏, 孙明浩. 2022. “逆全球化”背景下中国锂资源供应安全评估[J]. 矿业研究与开发, 42(4): 179−186. Google Scholar
[9]	龙如银, 杨家慧. 2018. 国家矿产资源安全研究现状及展望[J]. 资源科学, 40(3): 465−476. Google Scholar
[10]	屈金芝, 张艳松, 张艳, 等. 2021. 新形势下中国锂矿资源供应安全评估[J]. 中国矿业, 30(12): 1−7. doi: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.12.023 CrossRef Google Scholar
[11]	沈镭, 张红丽, 钟帅, 等. 2018. 新时代下中国自然资源安全的战略思考[J]. 自然资源学报, 33(5): 721−734. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20180317 CrossRef Google Scholar
[12]	田郁溟, 琚宜太, 周尚国. 2022 我国战略矿产资源安全保障若干问题的思考[J]. 地质与勘探, 58(1): 217−228. Google Scholar
[13]	王伯安, 张德胜. 2010. 中国石油经济安全评估指标体系设计[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 31(1): 141−144. Google Scholar
[14]	王学评, 柴新夏, 崔文娟. 2014. 全球锂资源开发利用的现状与思考[J]. 中国矿业, 23(6): 10−13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4051.2014.06.003 CrossRef Google Scholar
[15]	王翀. 2018. 基于模型组合法的我国能源消费需求趋势预测[J]. 统计与决策, 34(20): 86−89. Google Scholar
[16]	武强, 李博, 刘守强, 等. 2013. 基于分区变权模型的煤层底板突水脆弱性评估——以开滦蔚州典型矿区为例[J]. 煤炭学报, 38(9): 1516−1521. Google Scholar
[17]	邢佳韵, 彭浩, 张艳飞, 等. 2015. 世界锂资源供需形势展望[J]. 资源科学, 37(5): 988−997. Google Scholar
[18]	杨春风, 任雁飞, 王可意. 2019. 基于惩罚-激励变权的TOPSIS法边坡安全评估模型[J]. 重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版), 38(2): 59−64. Google Scholar
[19]	余敬, 高思宇, 张龙. 2017. 重要矿产资源安全评估的集成算法与实证[J]. 统计与决策, (6): 59−61. Google Scholar
[20]	袁小晶, 马哲, 李建武. 2019. 中国新能源汽车产业锂资源需求预测及建议[J]. 中国矿业, (8): 61−65. Google Scholar
[21]	张吉军. 2005. 论我国矿产资源经济安全[J]. 科技进步与对策, (3): 44−46. Google Scholar
[22]	张泽南, 张照志, 吴晴, 等. 2020. 中国锂矿资源需求预测[J]. 中国矿业, 29(7): 9−15. doi: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.07.006 CrossRef Google Scholar
[23]	赵亚伟, 陈艳晶. 2016. 多维时间序列的组合预测模型[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 33(6): 825−833. Google Scholar
[24]	郑明贵, 王萍, 曾健林, 等. 2022. “十四五”时期中国天然气国家安全预警分析[J]. 天然气工业, 42(3): 129−137. Google Scholar
[25]	郑人瑞, 唐金荣, 周平, 等. 2016. 我国锂资源供应风险评估[J]. 中国矿业, 25(12): 30−37. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4051.2016.12.007 CrossRef Google Scholar
[26]	周航, 廖昕, 陈仕阔, 等. 2022. 基于组合赋权和未确知测度的深埋隧道岩爆危险性评估——以川藏交通廊道桑珠岭隧道为例[J]. 地球科学, 47(6): 2130−2148. Google Scholar
[27]	周娜, 吴巧生, 薛双娇. 2020. 新时代战略性矿产资源安全评估指标体系构建与实证[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 30(12): 55−65. Google Scholar
[28]	周平, 唐金荣, 张涛. 2014. 全球锂资源供需前景与对策建议[J]. 地质通报, 33(10): 1532−1538. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-2552.2014.10.009 CrossRef Google Scholar
[29]	周园园. 2019. 中国锂资源供需形势及对外依存度分析[J]. 资源与产业, 21(3): 46−50. Google Scholar