Citation: | HAN Jian, CHEN Qishen, YANG Xuesong, LONG Tao, XING Jiayun, LI Qiong, ZHAO Hanqing, SHI Minjie, PAN Zhijun. 2023. Current situation of cobalt resources and analysis of supply and demand situation in the next 5-10 years[J]. Geology in China, 50(3): 743-755. doi: 10.12029/gc20220918003 |
This paper is the result of mineral exploration engineering.
Cobalt is a significant new energy mineral, and power batteries provide a wide range of market development opportunities as a result of the power batteries' quick increase in installed capacity. Evaluating the properties of cobalt deposits and the current state of supply and demand is essential for the geological exploration and subsequent industrial chain.
Mainly through the investigation method, quantitative analysis method and qualitative analysis method, we analyze, compare, and summarize large amounts of data collected in surveys.
The article examines the characteristics of the world's cobalt resources and the supply and demand situation from the perspectives of global resource distribution, supply and trade patterns, consumption history, and trends. It also conducts research and makes conclusions about the market's prospects based on the current state of the sector.
First, cobalt resources that can be developed and utilized in the world are relatively concentrated. Sedimentary sandstone copper-cobalt deposits are primarily found in Congo (Golden), weathered laterite nickel-cobalt deposits are mainly distributed in Australia, and magmatic rock-type copper-nickel-cobalt sulfides deposits are mostly discovered in Canada. Second, the majority of cobalt exploration funding go to the Congo (Kinshasa), Australia, Canada, and the United States, but there has been a drop in global cobalt output because the funds have not yet been translated into production capacity. Third, a "duopoly" situation is developing due to the global cobalt mining giants' steadily growing market dominance. Fourth, the global cobalt consumption structure has been supported by the battery-based consumption structure and consumers in China. Fifth, while all major institutions around the world are positive about the future of the cobalt market, this article expects it will continue to grow over the next five to ten years. However, there are risks to keep an eye out for, like technological advancements and competition in the battery sector.
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Changes in global cobalt reserves from 2011 to 2020 (Data sources: USGS, 2021)
Schematic diagram of the spatial distribution of major active cobalt mines in the world (Data sources: SNL, 2021)
2011-2020 investment in global cobalt resources exploration (Data sources: SNL, 2021)
Changes in global cobalt resource production from 2011 to 2020 (Data sources: USGS, 2021)
Changes in the market share of the world's top five cobalt mining companies (Data sources: SNL, 2021)
Cobalt industry chain and product chain map
Global cobalt consumption structure in 2011
Global cobalt consumption structure in 2020
Changes in cobalt consumption in China and other countries from 2011 to 2020
Changes in cobalt prices from January 2011 to November 2021 (Data sources: SNL, 2021)
Global cobalt consumption history and demand forecast based on MATLAB fitting function model