Assessment of exceedance probability of landslide run-out distance and hazard zoning

SUN Xiaoping; ZENG Peng; ZHANG Tianlong; WANG Sheng

2021 Vol. 40, No. 9

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SUN Xiaoping, ZENG Peng, ZHANG Tianlong, WANG Sheng. Assessment of exceedance probability of landslide run-out distance and hazard zoning[J]. Geological Bulletin of China, 2021, 40(9): 1560-1569.

Citation:

SUN Xiaoping, ZENG Peng, ZHANG Tianlong, WANG Sheng. Assessment of exceedance probability of landslide run-out distance and hazard zoning[J]. Geological Bulletin of China, 2021, 40(9): 1560-1569.

Assessment of exceedance probability of landslide run-out distance and hazard zoning

1.
College of Environmental and Civil Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Geo-hazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan, China

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Corresponding author: ZENG Peng, zengpeng15@cdut.edu.cn

Received Date: 04 April 2020

Revised Date: 05 June 2020

Publish Date: 15 September 2021

Abstract

Abstract

In view of the large uncertainties embedded in the physical and mechanical parameters of the dynamic numerical model, a quantitative method to assess exceedance probability of landslide run-out distance based on Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is proposed to improve the reliability of landslide slide prediction results.In the proposed method, the input parameters are considered as random variables with probability distribution functions; the LHS is used to generate stratified samplings for the random variables, and the dynamic numerical model is used to compute the landslide run-out distance corresponding to each random sample; and finally, the exceedance probability of landslide run-out distance is calculated by constructing limit state functions for different run-out distance threshold values.The proposed method is applied to conduct a probabilistic assessment of the run-out distance for Dabaozi landslide, and the 95% confidence interval of the run-out distance is computed as[196 m, 302 m].According to the run-out distance-exceedance probability curve, the potential affected area of the landslide is classified into five categories(i.e., extremely high, high, medium, low and extremely low) based on different threshold values of exceedance probability(i.e., 50%, 10%, 1% and 0.1%).The calculation results show that the actual run-out distance of landslide is within the 95% confidence interval, and the actual threat range is also within the classified high-extremely high danger zone.The results show that the evaluation results are reasonable and the landslide movement risk evaluation based on the distance exceeding probability is also proved effective.The proposed method may provide new ideas for landslide run-out distance assessment and for hazard zoning, which has important theoretical significance and practical engineering value.
- landslide run-out distance /
- dynamic numerical model /
- LHS /
- exceedance probability /
- hazard zoning

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References

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