Ecological security evaluation of counties/banners in the Yellow River basin in Ordos

The Yellow River basin has a weak eco-environment due to severe water-soil erosion. Research on ecological security state and primary driving factors holds great significance for the high-quality development of the basin. Based on the social statistical data and remote sensing data of counties/banners in Ordos in the basin from 2010 to 2020, this study established an ecological security index framework for these areas using the pressure-state-response (PSR) model by integrating 19 indices. Furthermore, this study calculated key driving factors using the gray relational model and forecast the ecological security evolution trend in the coming five years. The results are as follows: ① From 2010 to 2020, the comprehensive ecological security index of Dalad, Jungar, and Otog banners all showed a rising trend, while that of Hanggin Banner showed a downward trend following a rise. The ecological security level fluctuated around the critical state during this period. This result suggests an improvement in the ecological security of the basin; ② The dynamic change of ecological security in the study area was closely related to the changes in regional population, urbanization rate, grassland area, water resources area, Engel coefficient and proportion of tertiary industries; (iii) As indicated by the results of the ecological security forecast model of various counties/banners, the ecological security index of this area will show an upward trend in the coming five years. Finally, based on the above results, this study put forward relevant policies and suggestions, with a view to providing a quantitative reference and decision-making basis for ecological management and risk prevention and control of the Yellow River basin in Ordos.