| Citation: |
Zhen-quan Lu, Chu-guo Wu, Neng-you Wu, Hai-long Lu, Ting Wang, Rui Xiao, Hui Liu, Xin-he Wu, 2022. Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (1960‒2050) under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions, China Geology, 5, 475-509. doi: 10.31035/cg2022034
|
Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (1960‒2050) under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions
-
Abstract
Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community. As the world’s third pole, the global warming amplifier, and the starting region of China’s climate change, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change. The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates (NGHs) resources. Under the background of global warming, whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community. Given this, this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming, aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau. A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Over the past decades, the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently. Specifically, the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308‒0.420°C/10a and increased by approximately 1.54‒2.10°C in the past decades. Moreover, the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155‒1.575°C and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×106 km2 from about 1.4×106 km2 to 1.06×106 km2 in the past decades. As indicated by simulated calculation results, the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29‒39 m in the past 50 years, with the equivalent of (1.69‒2.27)×1010‒(1.12‒1.51)×1012 m3 of methane (CH4) being released due to NGHs dissociation. It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m, and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of (1.34‒88.8)×1010 m3 and (1.57‒104)×1010 m3 of CH4, respectively by 2030 and 2050. Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH4 has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide, the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH4 into the atmosphere, which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming. Therefore, the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality. Accordingly, this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction, storage, and transportation, and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them. The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect, thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.
-
-
References
Allen MR, Dube OP, Solecki W, Aragon-Durand F, Cramer W, Humphreys S, Kainuma M, Kala J, Mahowald N, Mulugetta Y. 2018. Framing and context. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Portner HO, Roberts D, Skea J, Shukla PR, Pirani A, Moufouma-Okia W, Pean C, Pidcock R (Eds. ), Global Warming of 1.5 oC. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 oC above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 49‒91. Alverson K, Bradley RS, Pedersen TF. 2003. Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future. Berlin, Germany, Springer Verlag, 1‒220. Archer D, Buffett B, Brovkin V. 2009. Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global carbon cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 106(49), 20596–20601. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0800885105. Archer D. 2007. Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change. Biogeosciences, 4, 521–544. doi: 10.5194/bg-4-521-2007. Babatunde DE, Anozie AN, Omoleye JA, Oyebode O, Babatunde OM, Agboola O. 2020. Prediction of global warming potential and carbon tax of a natural gas-fired plant. Energy Reports, 6, 1061–1070. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2020.11.076. Bai W, Wang GX, Liu GS. 2011. Response of CO2 emission to temperature rise during the growth period of alpine meadow in Qinghai Tibet Plateau. Journal of Ecology, 30(6), 1045–1051 (in Chinese with English abstract). Bains S, Corfield M, Norris RD. 1999. Mechanisms of climate warming at the end of the Paleocene. Science, 285, 724–727. doi: 10.1126/science.285.5428.724. Bains S, Norris RD, Corfield M, Faul KL. 2000. Termination of global warmth at the Paleocene/Eocene boundary through productivity feedback. Nature, 407, 171–174. doi: 10.1038/35025035. Barrand NE, Vaughan DG, Steiner N, Tedesco M, Munneke PK, van den Broeke MR, Hosking JS. 2013. Trends in Antarctic Peninsula surface melting conditions from observations and regional climate modelling. Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 118, 315–330. doi: 10.1029/2012JF002559. Beauchamp B, Baud A. 2002. Growth and demise of Permian biogenic chert along Northwest Pangea: Evidence for end-Permian collapse of thermohaline circulation. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 184, 37‒63. Beauchamp B, Grasby SE. 2012. Permian lysocline shoaling and ocean acidification along NW Pangea led to carbonate eradication and chert expansion. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 350‒352, 73‒90. Beeman JC, Gest L, Parrenin F, Raynaud D, Fudge TJ, Buizert C, Brook EJ. 2019. Antarctic temperature and CO2: Near-synchrony yet variable phasing during the last deglaciation. Climate of the Past, 15, 913–926. doi: 10.5194/cp-15-913-2019. Beerling DJ, Lomas MR, Grocke DR. 2002. On the nature of methane gas-hydrate dissociation during the Toarcian and Aptian oceanic anoxic events. American Journal of Science, 302, 28–499. doi: 10.2475/ajs.302.1.28. Bekryaev RV, Polyakov IV, Alexeev VA. 2010. Role of polar amplification in long term surface air temperature variations and modern arctic warming. Journal of Climate, 23, 3888–3906. doi: 10.1175/2010jcli3297.1. Bell RE, Chu W, Kingslake J. 2017. Antarctic ice shelf potentially stabilized by export of meltwater in surface river. Nature, 544(7650), 344–348. doi: 10.1038/nature22048. Bengtsson L, Semenov VA, Johannessen OM. 2004. The early twentieth-century warming in the arctic—a possible mechanism. J. Clim., 17, 4045–4057. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<4045:TETWIT>2.0.CO;2. Bentsen M, Bethke I, Debernard JB, Iversen T, Kirkevåg A, Seland Ø, Drange H, Roelandt C, Seierstad IA, Hoose C, Kristjansson JE. 2013. The Norwegian earth system model, NorESM1-M-Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate. Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 687–720. doi: 10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013. Berger A, Crucifix M, Hodell DA. 2016. Interglacials of the last 800, 000 years. Reviews of Geophysics, 54(1), 162–219. doi: 10.1002/2015RG000482. Blunden J, Arndt DS. 2019. State of the climate in 2018. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/2019BAMSStateoftheClimate.1. Boucher O, Pham M. 2002. History of sulfate aerosol radiative forcings. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 1308. doi: 10.1029/2001GL014048. Bova S, Rosenthal Y, Liu Z, Godad SP, Yan M. 2021. Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial. Nature, 589(7843), 548. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-03155-x. Cai Y, Li DL, Tang MC. 2003. Interdecadal variation of temperature over the plateau in recent 50 years. Plateau Meteorology, 22(5), 464–470 (in Chinese with English abstract). Chazelas B, Leger A, Ollivier M. 2006. How to oxidize atmospheric CH4? — A challenge for the future Science of the Total Environment, 354, 292–294. doi: 10.1016/j.seitotenv.2002.08.031. Chen BD, Chao WC, Liu XD. 2001. Enhanced climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau due to doubling CO2: A model study. Climate Dynamics, 20(4), 401–413. doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0308-6. Chen DF, Wang MC, Xia B. 2005. Formation condition and distribution prediction of gas hydrate in Qinghai Tibet Plateau permafrost. Chinese Journal of Physiology, 48(1), 165–172 (in Chinese with English abstract). Chen XG, Li L, Zhu XD. 2009. Study on regional differences and causes of climate change in Qinghai Province. Research Progress on Climate Change, 5(5), 249–254 (in Chinese with English abstract). Chen XL, Wang P. 2021. Climate changes over the Arctic land during 1979‒2017. Resources Science, 43(6), 1260–1274 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.06.16. Cheng C, Yang X, Wang J, Luo K, Rasheed A, Zeng Y, Shang Q. 2020. Mitigating net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity by intermittent irrigation under straw incorporation in Chinese double-rice cropping systems. Paddy and Water Environment, 18(1), 99–109. doi: 10.1007/s10333-019-00767-6. Cheng F, Garzione C, Li XZ, Salzmann U, Schwarz F, Haywood AM, Tindall J, Nie JS, Li L, Wang L, Abbott BW, Elliott B, Liu WG, Upadhyay D, Arnold A, Tripati A. 2022. Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue. Nature Communications, 13(1329), 12. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29011-2. Cheng P, Kong XW, Luo H, Li BZ, Wang YF. 2020. Study on climate change and runoff response in the Central Qilian Mountains in recent 60 years. Arid Land Geography, 43(5), 1192–1201 (in Chinese with English abstract). China Meterological Administration. 2019. Blue book on climate change in China (2019). Beijing, China Meterological Administration (in Chinese). Christiansen B, Ljungqvist FC. 2017. Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(1), 40–96. doi: 10.1002/2016RG000521. Cicerone RJ, Oremland RS. 1988. Biogeochemical aspects of atmospheric methane. Global Biogeochem Cycles, 2, 299–327. doi: 10.1029/GB002i004p00299. Clift P, Bice K. 2002. Baked Alaska. Nature, 419, 129–130. doi: 10.1038/419129a. Collett TS. 2007. Arctic gas hydrate energy assessment studies. The Arctic Energy Summit, Anchorage, Alaska,15–18. Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M, Tebaldi C, Weaver A J, Wehner M. 2013. Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Doschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (Eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, England, Cambridge University Press, 1029‒1136. Cook AJ, Fox AJ, Vaughan DG. 2005. Retreating glacier fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past half-century. Science, 308, 541–544. doi: 10.1126/science.1104235. Crouch EM, Heilmann-Clausen C, Brinkhuis H, Morgans HEG, Rogers KM, Egger H, Schimitz B. 2001. Global dinoflagellate event associated with the late paleocene thermal maximum. Geology, 29, 315–318. doi: 10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<0315:GDEAWT>2.0.CO;2. Crowell JC. 1995. The ending of the late Paleozoic ice age during the Permian Period. In: Scholle PA, Peryt TM, Ulmer-Scholle DS (Eds.), The Permian of Northern Pangea. Springer, Berlin–Heidelberg, 62‒235. Crutzen PJ, Lelieveld J. 2001. Human impacts on atmospheric chemistry. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 29, 17–45. doi: 10.1146/annurev.earth.29.1.17. Cui ZY, Li ZW, Li J. 2014. A preliminary study on the changes of glacier reserves in the inner flow area of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau from 1970 to 2000. Journal of Geophysics, 57(5), 1440–1450 (in Chinese with English abstract). Da S. 2011. The variation trend of temperature and precipitation in the Lake Selin Co in Tibet in recent 50 years. Tibet’s and Science Technology, 1, 42–45 (in Chinese with English abstract). Dai A, Luo D, Song M, Liu J. 2019. Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2. Natural Communication, 10, 121. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9. Dan Z, Zhuo M, Dan Z, Ci W. 2018. Analysis of the characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the region of Karuola Glacier in the near 50a. Climate Change Research Letters, 7, 199–203 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2018.73022. Deli GJ. 2019. Analysis of temperature change trend in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in recent 30 years. Tibet’s Science and Technology, 7, 36–43 (in Chinese with English abstract). Demirbas A. 2010. Methane hydrates as potential energy resource: Part 1 – Importance, resource and recovery facilities. Energy Conversion and Management, 51, 1547–1561. doi: 10.1016/j.enconman.2010.02.013. Desa E. 2001. Submarıne methane hydrates-potential fuel resource of the 21st century. Proceedings of Andra Pradesh Akademi of Sciences, 5(2), 101–114. Dickens GR, Castillo MM, Walker JCG. 1997. A blast of gas in the latest Paleocene: Simulating first-order effects of massive dissociation of oceanic methane hydrate. Geology, 25, 259–262. doi: 10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0259:ABOGIT>2.3.CO;2. Dickens GR, O'Neil JR, Rea DK, Owen RM. 1995. Dissociation of oceanic methane hydrate as a cause of the carbon isotope excursion at the end of the Paleocene. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10(6), 965–971. doi: 10.1029/95PA02087. Dickens GR. 1999. Carbon cycle: The blast in the past. Nature, 401, 752–755. doi: 10.1038/44486. Dickens GR. 2001. Modeling the global carbon cycle with a gas hydrate capacitor: Significance for the latest paleocene thermal maximum. Washington DC American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph Series, 124, 19–38. doi: 10.1029/GM124p0019. Dickens GR. 2003. A methane trigger for rapid warming? Science, 299(5609), 1017. doi: 10.1126/science.1080789. Ding YH, Ren GY, Shi GY. 2006. National assessment report on climate change (I): History and future trend of climate change in China. Progress in Climate Change Research, 2(1), 3–8 (in Chinese with English abstract). Ding YH, Zhang L. 2008. Comparison of abrupt climate change time between the plateau and other parts of China. Atmospheric Science, 32(4), 794–805 (in Chinese with English abstract). Dixit A, Sahany S, Kulkarni AV. 2021. Glacial changes over the Himalayan Beas basin under global warming. Journal of Environmental Management, 295, 113101. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113101. Dorritie D. 2002. Consequences of Siberian Traps volcanism. Science, 297(5588), 1808–1809. doi: 10.1126/science.297.5588.1808. Du J. 2001. Temperature changes in the Tibetan Plateau in recent 40 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 56(6), 682–690 (in Chinese with English abstract). Duan AM, Wu GX, Zhang Q. 2006a. Qinghai-Tibet Plateau climate warming is new evidence of increased greenhouse gas emissions results. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(8), 989–992 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.1360/csb2006-51-8-989. Duan AM, Wu GX. Zhang Q. 2006b. New proofs of the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau as a result of the increasing greenhouse gases emissions. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(11), 1396–1400. doi: 10.1007/s11434-006-1396-6. Easterling DR, Wehner MF. 2009. Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L08706. doi: 10.1029/2009GL037810. Erwin DH, Bowring SA, Yugan J. 2002. End-Permian mass extinctions: A review. In: Koeberl C, MacLeod KG (Eds. ), Catastrophic Events and Mass Extinctions: Impacts and Beyond. Geological Society of America, 363‒383. Etheridge DM, Steele LP, Francey RJ, Langenfelds RL. 1998. Atmospheric methane between 1000 A. D. and present:Evidence of anthropogenic emissions and climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 15979–15993. Feng S, Tang MC, Wang DM. 1998. Plateau is a new evidence of the starting area of climate change in China. Science Bulletin, 43(6), 633–636 (in Chinese with English abstract). Fielding CR, Frank TD, Birgenheier LP, Rygel MC, Jones AT, Roberts J. 2008a. Stratigraphic imprint of the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age in eastern Australia: A record of alternating glacial and nonglacial climate regime. Journal of the Geological Society, 165, 129–140. doi: 10.1144/0016-76492007-036. Fielding CR, Frank TD, Isbell JL. 2008b. Resolving the Late Paleozoic Ice Age in time and space. Geological Society of America, 441, 353. Fu CB, Wang Q. 1992. Definition and detection method of climate catastrophe. Atmospheric Science, 16(4), 482–493. Fu Y, Lu R, Guo D. 2018. Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 oC global warming targets. Advances in Climate Change Research, 9(2), 112–119. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.12.001. Glasby GP. 2003. Potential impact on climate of the exploitation of methane hydrate deposits offshore. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 20, 163–175. doi: 10.1016/S0264-8172(03)00021-7. Goosse H, Kay JE, Armour KC, Bodas-Salcedo A, Chepfer H, Docquier D, Jonko A, Kushner PJ, Lecomte O, Massonnet F, Park HS, Pithan F, Svensson G, Vancoppenolle M. 2018. Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions. Nature communications, 9(1), 1–13. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-04173-0. Gu CJ, Mu XM, Gao P. 2017. Study on the temporal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2014. Resources and Environment in Arid Zones, 31(3), 136–143 (in Chinese with English abstract). Gu F, Gou XH, Deng Y. 2018. Analysis of temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature in Yunnan Guizhou Plateau from 1960 to 2014. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Science Edition), 54(6), 721–730 (in Chinese with English abstract). Haeberli W, Beniston M. 1998. Climate change and its impacts on glaciers and permafrost in the Alps. Ambio, 27(4), 258–265. Hamilton C. 2016. Define the Anthropocene in terms of the whole earth. Nature, 536(7616), 251. doi: 10.1038/536251a. Han GJ, Wang YL, Fang SB. 2011. Climate change in Qinghai Tibet Plateau in recent 50 years and its impact on agriculture and animal husbandry. Resource Science, 33(10), 1969–1975 (in Chinese with English abstract). Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lacis A, Oinas V. 2000. Global warming in the twenty first century: An alternative scenario. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 97, 9875–9880. doi: 10.1073/pnas.170278997. Hartmann DL, Klein-Tank AMG, Rusticucci M, Alexander LV, Bronnimann S, Charabi Y. 2013. Observations: Atmosphere and surface. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J (Eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, England, and New York, NY, Cambridge University Press, 159‒254. Hegerl GC, Bronnimann S, Schurer A, Cowan T. 2018. The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences. WIREs Climate Change, 9, 522. doi: 10.1002/wcc.522. Hesselbo SP, Grocke DR, Jenkyns HC, Bjerrum CJ, Farrimond P, Morgans-Bell HS, Green OR. 2000. Massive dissociation of gas hydrate during a Jurassic anoxic event. Nature, 406, 392–395. doi: 10.1038/35019044. Hodson DLR, Robson JI, Sutton RT. 2014. An anatomy of the cooling of the north Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s. Journal of Climate, 27(21), 8229–8243. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00301.1. Hoffman JS, Clark PU, Parnell AC. 2017. Regional and global sea-surface temperatures during the last interglaciation. Science, 355(6322), 276–279. doi: 10.1126/science.aai8464. Hou GL, Xu CJ. 2016. Temperature changes in the Tibetan Plateau and their impact on human activities in the past 2000 years. Journal of Qinghai Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 3(12), 56–62 (in Chinese with English abstract). Hu XM, Ma JR, Ying J, Cai M, Kong YQ. 2021. Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations. Advances in Climate Change Research, 12(4), 499–507. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.04.002. Hudson TL, Magoon LB. 2002. Tectonic controls of greenhouse gas flux to the Paleocene atmosphere from the Gulf of Alaska accretionary prism. Geology, 30(6), 547–550. doi: 10.1130/0091-7613(2002)030<0547:TCOGGF>2.0.CO;2. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, eds., Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 18(2), 95‒123. IPCC. 2013. Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, Cambridge University Press, 383‒464. IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, (Eds. ), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 18(2), 95‒123. IPCC. 2018. Special report: Warming of 1.5 oC. http://www.ipcc.ch/Sr15. James R, Washington R. 2013. Changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with degrees of global warming. Climatic Change, 117, 859–872. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0581-7. Ji Q, Yang JP, Chen HJ, He QS, Tang F. 2020. Analysis of temperature change in Qinghai Tibet Plateau in recent 55 years from a comprehensive perspective. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Science Edition), 56(6), 755–764 (in Chinese with English abstract). Jiang D, Zhang Y, Sun J. 2009. Ensemble projection of 1-3 oC warming in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 54(18), 3326–3334. doi: 10.1007/s11434-009-0313-1. Jiao SH, Wang LY, Liu GN. 2012. Temporal and spatial variations of the active layer along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway in a permafrost region. Chinese Science Bulletin, 57(35), 4609–4616. doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5323-8. Jiao SH, Wang LY, Liu GN. 2016. Prediction of Permafrost Distribution and change in the Tibetan Plateau under the background of global warming. Journal of Peking University (Natural Science Edition), 52(2), 249–256 (in Chinese with English abstract). Jin CS, Qiao DW, Lu ZQ, Zhu YH, Zhang YQ, Wen HJ, Li YH, Wang PK, Huang X. 2011. Study on the characteristics of hydrate stability zone in Muli permafrost area, Qinghai—comparison between simulation and drilling results. Journal of Geophysics, 54(1), 173–181 (in Chinese with English abstract). Jin Z, You QL, Wu FY, Sun B, Cai ZY. 2020. Changes of climate and climate extremes in the Three-Rivers Headwaters’ region over the Tibetan Plateau during the past 60 years. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 43(6), 1042–1055 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20201008001. Jones PD, Marsh R, Wigley TML. 1993. Decadal timescale links between Antarctic Peninsula ice-core oxygen-18, deuterium and temperature. The Holocene, 3, 14–26. doi: 10.1177/095968369300300102. Jones PD. 1990. Antarctic temperatures over the present century – a study of the early expedition record. Journal of Climate, 3(11), 1193–1203. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<1193:ATOTPC>2.0.CO;2. Jouzel J, Masson-Delmotte V, Cattani O. 2007. Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800, 000 years. Science, 317(5839), 793–796. doi: 10.1126/science.1141038. Kang SC. 2019. Linking atmospheric pollution to cryospheric change in the Third Pole region: Current progress and future prospects. National Science Review, 6(4), 796–809. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwz031. Kang XC. 1996. Characteristics of climate change in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau in recent 40 years. Glaciology and Geocryology, 18(S1), 281–288 (in Chinese with English abstract). Katz ME, Pak DK, Dickens GR, Miller KG. 1999. The source and fate of massive carbon input during the Latest Paleocene thermal maximum. Science, 286, 1531–1533. doi: 10.1126/science.286.5444.1531. Kaufman D, McKay N, Routson C. 2020. A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records. Scientific Data, 7(1), 183. doi: 10.1038/s41597-020-0445-3. Kennett JP, Cannariato KG, Hendy IL, Behl RJ. 2000. Carbon isotopic evidence for methane hydrate instability during quaternary interstadials. Science, 288, 128–133. doi: 10.1126/science.288.5463.128. Kennett JP, Cannariato KG, Hendy IL, Behl RJ. 2002. Methane hydrates in quaternary climate change. Washington, DC, American Geophysical Union, 224. Kennett JP, Cannariato KG, Hendy IL, Behl RJ. 2003. Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. Washington D. C., American Geophysical Union 1‒217. doi:10.1029/054SP. Kidder DL, Worsley TR. 2004. Causes and consequences of extreme Permo-Triassic warming to globally equable climate and relation to the Permo-Triassic extinction and recovery. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 203(3‒4), 207‒237. Kim H, Yeh SW, An SI, Song SY. 2020. Changes in the role of Pacific decadal oscillation on sea ice extent variability across the mid-1990s. Scientific reports, 10, 17564. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-74260-0. Kingslake J, Ely JC, Das I. 2017. Widespread movement of meltwater onto and across Antarctic ice shelves. Nature, 544(7650), 349–352. doi: 10.1038/nature22049. Knight J, Kennedy JJ, Folland C. 2009. Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(8), 22–23. Koh CA, Sum AK, Sloan ED. 2012. State of the art: natural gas hydrates as a natural resource. Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 8, 132–138. doi: 10.1016/j.jngse.2012.01.005. Krull ES, Retallack GJ, Campbell HJ, Lyon GL. 2000. δ13Corg chemostratigraphy of the Permian-Triassic boundary in the Maitai Group, New Zealand: Evidence for high-latitudinal methane release. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 43(1), 21–32. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2000.9514868. Krull ES, Retallack GJ. 2000. δ13C depth profiles from paleosols across the Permian-Triassic boundary: Evidence for methane release. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 112, 1459–1472. doi: 10.1130/0016-7606(2000)112<1459:CDPFPA>2.0.CO;2. Kvenvolden KA. 1988. Methane hydrate - a major reservoir of carbon in the shallow geosphere. Chemical geology, 71(1‒3), 41‒51. doi: 10.1016/0009-2541(88)90104-0. Kvenvolden KA. 1993. Gas hydrates-geological perspective and global change. Reviews of Geophysics, 31(21), 173–187. doi: 10.1029/93RG00268. Kvenvolden KA. 2000. Natural gas hydrates: introduction and history of discovery. In MD Max (Ed.), Natural gas hydrate in oceanic and permafrost environments, Dordrecht, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 9‒16. Kvenvolden KA. 2002. Methane hydrate in the global carbon cycle. Terra Nova, 14(5), 302–306. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3121.2002.00414.x. Lamb HH. 1977. Climate: Present, Past and Future, Vol. 2: Climatic History and the Future. London, United Kingdom: Methuen, 1‒837. doi: 10.4324/9780203804308. Lang X, Sui Y. 2013. Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2 oC global warming. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(12), 1453–1461. doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5520-5. Latonin MM, Bashmachnikov IL, Bobylev LP, Davy R. 2021. Multi-model ensemble mean of global climate models fails to reproduce early twentieth century Arctic warming. Polar Science, 30, 100677. doi: 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100677. Lean JL, Rind DH. 2009. How will earth’s surface temperature change in future decades? Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L15708. doi: 10.1029 /2004GL021592. Lee HJ, Kwon MO, Yeh SW, Kwon YO, Park W, Park JH, Kim YH, Alexander MA. 2017. Impact of poleward moisture transport from the North Pacific on the acceleration of sea ice loss in the Arctic since 2002. Journal of Climate, 30(17), 6757–6769. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0461.1. Lelieveld J, Crutzen PJ, Dentener FJ. 1998. Changing concentration, lifetime and climate forcing of atmospheric methane. Tellus B, 50(2), 128–150. doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.1998.t01-1-00002.x. Letcher TM. 2021. Global warming: A complex situation. Climate Change, Third Edition, Chapter 1. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00001-3. Lewis SC, King AD, Perkins-Kirkpatrick SE, Mitchell DM. 2019. Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1. 5 oC and 2 oC of global mean warming. Weather and Climate Extremes, 26(100233), 1–11. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100233. Li CL, Kang SC. 2006. Review of studies in climate change over the Tibetan Plateau. Acta Geographica Sinica, 61(3), 327–335 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li DL, He JH, Tang X. 2007. The relationship between the intensity of surface heating fields over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and ENSO cycle. Plateau Meteorology, 26(1), 39–46 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li DS, Zhang RY, Cui BL, Zhao YD, Wang Y, Jiang BF. 2021. Response of Lake dynamics of Hala lake on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau to climate change from 1986 to 2015. Journal of Natural Resources, 36(2), 501–512 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210218. Li F, Gao YQ, Wan X, Li Q, Guo DL, Wagn PL, Li HX. 2021. Earth's “three-poles”climate change under global warming. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 44(1), 1–11 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20201031003. Li HD, Shen WS, She GH. 2010. Climatic changes in the source region of the Yalu Zangbo river over last 35 years, China. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 17(5), 63–67 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li JF, Ye JL, Qin XW, Qiu HJ, Wu NY, Lu HL, Xie WW, Lu JA, Peng F, Xu ZQ, Lu C, Kuang ZG, Wei JG, Liang QY, Lu HF, Kou BB. 2018. The first offshore natural gas hydrate production test in South China Sea. China Geology, 1, 5–16. doi: 10.31035/cg2018003. Li KK, Qin XG, Zhang L. 2018. The ancient oasis and human activity in Lop Nur (Loulan) region during 1260‒1450 A. D. Quaternary Sciences, 38(3), 720–731 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li L, Chen XG, Wang ZY. 2010. Study on regional climate change and its differences in the Qinghai Xizang Plateau. Progress in Climate Change Research, 6(3), 181–186 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li L, Li HM, Shen HY, Liu CH, Ma YC, Zhao YC. 2018. Some facts of climate change in the Tibetan Plateau and the causes of interannual oscillation. Glaciology and Geocryology, 40(6), 1079–1089 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li L, Li XD, Jiao RX. 2019. The heterogeneity of climate change and its genesis in the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Journal of Natural Resources, 34(7), 1496–1505 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190712. Li SC, Xu L, Guo YX. 2006. The temperature variation of Qinghai Tibet Plateau in recent 34 years. Chinese Desert, 26(1), 27–34 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li SS, Cao GC, Shi PC. 2014. Air temperature variation and mutation analysis of cold/worm season in Qinghai Lake watershed from 1970 to 2012. Journal of Qinghai Normal University:Natural Science, (3), 60–65. Li WJ. 2012. The Modern Climate Service. Beijing, China Meteorological Press (in Chinese). Li XZ, Liu XD. 2009. A numerical study of the aerosol influence on climate change over the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 27(1), 1–8 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li YY, Li BW, Xu X. 2019. Pollen-based climate reconstruction during the past 2100 years from the MG peat profile in the northern Daxing’an Mountains. Quaternary Sciences, 39(4), 1034–1041 (in Chinese with English abstract). Li ZP. 2018. The impact of climate change on water resources security in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. International Security Research, 36(3), 42–63. Lin ZY, Zhao XY. 1996. Spatial characteristics of temperature and precipitation variation on the plateau. Chinese Science, 26(4), 354–358 (in Chinese with English abstract). Liu CH, Wang PL, Wen TT, Yu D, Bai WR. 2021. Spatio-temporal characteristics of climate change in the Yellow River source area from 1960 to 2019. Arid Zone Research, 38(2), 293–302 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.02.01. Liu GF, Lu HL. 2010. Basic characteristics of main climatic factors in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2005. Geography Research, 29(12), 2281–2288 (in Chinese with English abstract). Liu XD, Chen BD. 2000. Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. International Journal of Climatology, 20(14), 1729–1742. doi: 10.1002/1097-0088(20001130)20:14<1729::AID-JOC556>3.0.CO;2-Y. Liu XD, Chen ZG, Zhang R. 2009. The A1B scenario projection for climate change over the Tibetan Plateau in the next 30-50 years. Plateau Meteorology, 28(3), 475–484 (in Chinese with English abstract). Liu XD, Hou P. 1998. The relationship between climate warming and altitude in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas in recent 30 years. Plateau Meteorology, 17(3), 245–249 (in Chinese with English abstract). Liu Y, Wang F, Zhang ZT, Huang CF, Chen X, Li N. 2021. Comprehensive assessment of “climate change−crop yield−economic impact” in seven sub-regions of China. Climate Change Research, 17(4), 455–465 (in Chinese with English abstract). Ljungqvist FC. 2010. A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 92(3), 339‒351. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0459.2010.00399.x. Lu Z, Zhu Y, Zhang Y. 2011. Gas hydrate occurrences in the Qilian Mountain permafrost, Qinghai Province, China. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 66(2/3), 93–104. doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2011.01.008. Lu ZQ and Sultan N. 2008. Empirical expressions for gas hydrate stability law, gas hydrate fraction and gas hydrate layer density at temperature 273. 15 K to 290. 15 K. Geochemical Journal, 42(2), 163–175. doi: 10.2343/geochemj.42.163. Lu ZQ, Sultan N, Jin CS, Wang MJ, Zhu YH, Wu BH. 2008. Semi quantitative analysis of formation conditions and content influencing factors of natural gas hydrate. Journal of Geophysics, 51(1), 125–132 (in Chinese with English abstract). Lu ZQ, Sultan N, Wu BH, Rao Z, Luo XR, Zhu YH, Bai RM. 2009. Simulation study on formation conditions of natural gas hydrate in permafrost area of Qinghai Xizang Plateau. Journal of Geophysics, 52(1), 157–168 (in Chinese with English abstract). Lu ZQ, Wu BH, Rao Z, Zhu YH, Luo XR, Bai RM. 2007. Geological and geochemical anomalies of gas hydrate in permafrost areas along Qinghai Tibet railway. Geological Bulletin, 26(8), 1029–1040 (in Chinese with English abstract). Lu ZQ, Zhai GY, Zhu YH, Liu H, Wang T, Fang H, Sun ZJ, Tang SQ, Zhang YQ. 2018. New discovery of the permafrost gas hydrate accumulation in Qilian Mountain, China. China Geology, 1, 306–307. doi: 10.31035/cg2018034. Lu, ZQ, Tang SQ, Luo XL, Zhai GY, Fan DW, Liu H, Wang T, Zhu YH, Xiao R. 2020. A natural gas hydrate-oil-gas system in the Qilian Mountain permafrost area, northeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. China Geology, 3, 511–523. doi: 10.31035/cg2020075. Lunardini VJ. 1996. Climatic warming and the degradation of warm permafrost. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, l7, 311–320. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1530(199610)7:4<311::AID-PPP234>3.0.CO;2-H. Lüthi D, Floch ML, Bereiter B. 2008. High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650, 000‒800, 000 years before present. Nature, 453(7193), 379–382. doi: 10.1038/nature06949. Ma JF. 2014. Climatic characteristics of Delingha city in recent 40 years. Qinghai Weather, (4), 1–5. Ma ZZ, Zhang MJ, Wang SJ. 2019. Warming characteristics and differences between Qinghai Tibet high cold region and northwest arid region from 1960 to 2015. Plateau Meteorology, 38(1), 42–54 (in Chinese with English abstract). Majorowicz J, Grasby SE, Safanda J, Beauchamp B. 2014. Gas hydrate contribution to Late Permian global warming. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 393, 243–253. doi: 10.1016/j.jpgl.2014.03.003. Majorowicz J, Osadetz K. 2001. Gas hydrate distribution and volume in Canada. AAPG Bull., 85(7), 1211–1230. doi: 10.1306/8626CA9B-173B-11D7-8645000102C1865D. Makogon YF, Omelchenko RY. 2013. Commercial gas production from Messoyakha deposit in hydrate conditions. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 11, 1–6. doi: 10.1016/j.jngse.2012.08.002. Malyan SK, Bhatia A, Fagodiya RK, Kumar SS, Dipak AK, Gupta K, Tomer R, Harit RC, Kumar V, Jain N, Pathak H. 2021. Plummeting global warming potential by chemicals interventions in irrigated rice: A lab to field assessment. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 319, 1‒10. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2021.107545. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK. 1999. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(6), 759–762. doi: 10.1029/1999GL900070. Marcott SA, Shakun JD, Clark PU. 2013. A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11300 years. Science, 339(6124), 1198–1201. doi: 10.1126/science.1228026. Masson-Delmotte V, Kageyama M, Braconnot P, Charbit S, Krinner G, Ritz C, Guilyardi E, Jouzel J, Abe-Ouchi A, Crucifix M, Gladstone RM, Hewitt CD, Kitoh A, LeGrande AN, Marti O, Merkel U, Motoi T, Ohgaito R, Otto-Bliesner B, Peltier WR, Ross I, Valdes PJ, Vettoretti G, Weber SL, Wolk F, Yu Y. 2006. Past and future polar amplification of climate change: Climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints. Climate Dynamics, 26(5), 513–529. doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9. Matsumoto R. 1995. Causes of the δ13C anomalies of carbonates and a new paradigm ‘gas hydrate hypothesis’. Journal-Geological Society of Japan, 101, 902–924. Max MD, Dillon WP, Nishimura C, Hurdle BG. 1999. Sea-floor methane blow-out and global fire storm at the K-T boundary. Geo-Marine Letters, 18(4), 285–291. doi: 10.1007/s003670050081. Meredith M, Sommerkorn M, Cassotta S. 2019. IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. Mienert J, Vanneste M, Bunz S, Andreassen K, Haflflidason H, Sejrup HP. 2005. Ocean warming and gas hydrate stability on the mid-Norwegian margin at the Storegga Slide. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 22, 233–244. doi: 10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2004.10.018. Monastersky R. 2015. Anthropocene: The human age. Nature, 519(7542), 144–147. doi: 10.1038/519144a. Moon HW, Hussin WMRW, Kim HC. 2015. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic nearshore mega-epifaunal benthic assemblages in a glacial fiord on King George Island: Responses and implications. Ecological Indicators, 57, 280–292. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.04.031. Myhre G, Myhre A, Stordal F. 2001. Historical evolution of radiative forcing of climate. Atmospheric Environment, 35(13), 2361–2373. doi: 10.1016/S1352-2310(00)00531-8. National Climate Change Centre, China Meteorological Administration. 2022. Blue book on Climate Change in China 2022. Beijing, Science Press (in Chinese). Neukom R, Steiger N, Gomez-Navarro JJ. 2019. No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era. Nature, 571(7766), 550–554. doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1401-2. Nisbet EG. 1990. The end of the ice age. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 27(1), 148–157. doi: 10.1139/e90-012. Obu J, Westermann S, Bartsch A, Berdnikov N, Christiansen HH, Dashtseren A, Delaloye R, Elberling B, Etzelmüller B, Kholodov A, Khomutov A, Kääb A, Leibman MO, Lewkowicz AG, Panda SK, Romanovsky V, Way RG, Westergaard-Nielsen A, Wu T, Yamkhin J, Zou D. 2019. Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling for 2000–2016 at 1 km2 scale. Earth-Science Reviews, 193, 299–316. doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.023. Padden M, Weissert H, de Rafelis M. 2001. Evidence for late Jurassic release of methane from gas hydrate. Geology, 29, 223–226. doi: 10.1130/0091-7613(2001)029<0223:EFLJRO>2.0.CO;2. PAGES 2K Consortium, Neukom R, Barboza LA. 2019. Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era. Nature Geoscience, 12(8), 643–649. doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0400-0. PAGES2K Consortium. 2013. Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 6(5), 339–346. doi: 10.1038/ngeo1797. Pan BT, Li JJ. 1996. Qinghai Tibet Plateau: Driving force and amplifier of global climate change: The impact of Qinghai Tibet Plateau uplift on climate change. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Science Edition), 32(1), 108–115 (in Chinese with English abstract). Park BK, Chang SK, Yoon HI. 1998. Recent retreat of ice cliffs, King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctic Peninsula. Annals of Glaciology, 27, 633–635. doi: 10.3189/1998AoG27-1-633-635. Qi W, Ding MH, Du ZL, Yang J, Zhao SD, Xiao CD. 2021. Climate variability in the Arctic region over the Common Era and its response to AMO. Quaternary Sciences, 41(3), 691–701 (in Chinese with English abstract). Qin DH. 2004. The science of climate change in the 21st century ‒ the facts, effects and countermeasures of climate change. Science and Technology Guide, 7, 4–7. Qiu J. 2008. China: The third pole. Nature, 454(7203), 393–396. doi: 10.1038/454393a. Racki G, Wignall PB. 2005. Late Permian double-phased mass extinction and volcanism: An oceanographic perspective. In: Over DJ, Morrow DJ, Wignall PB (Eds.), Developments in Palaeontology and Stratigraphy. Elsevier, 263‒297. Rahmstorf S, Foster G, Cahill N. 2017. Global temperature evolution: Recent trends and some pitfalls. Environmental Research Letters, 12. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6825,54001. Ren GY, Jiang DB, Yan Q. 2021. Characteristics, drivers and feedbacks of paleo-climatic variations and the implications for modern climate change research. Quaternary Sciences, 41(3), 824–841 (in Chinese with English abstract). Ren YL, Shi YJ, Wang JS, Zhang Y, Wang SG. 2012. Temperature changes in the Tibetan Plateau over the past century revealed by British high-resolution grid data. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Science Edition), 48(6), 63–68 (in Chinese with English abstract). Reshetnikov AI, Paramonova NN, Shashkov AA. 2000. An evaluation of historical methane emissions from the Soviet gas industry. Journal of Geophysical Research Letters, 105, 3517–3529. doi: 10.1029/1999JD900761. Retallack GJ, Krull ES. 1999. Landscape ecological shift at the Permian-Triassic boundary in Antarctica. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences, 46, 785–812. doi: 10.1046/j.1440-0952.1999.00745.x. Ruhl M, Bonis NR, Reichart GJ, Sinninghe-Damsté JS, Kürschner WM. 2011. Atmospheric carbon injection linked to end-Triassic mass extinction. Science, 333, 430–434. doi: 10.1126/science.120425. Ruppel CD, Kessler JD. 2017. The interaction of climate change and methane hydrates. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(1), 126–168. doi: 10.1002/2016RG000534. Ruppel CD. 2011. Methane hydrates and contemporary climate change. Nature Eduction Knowledge, 2(12), 12. Sanderson MG, Hemming DL, Betts RA. 2011. Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4oC) global warming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1934), 85–98. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0283. Sato M, Hansen JE, McCormick MP, Pollack JB. 1993. Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850‒1990. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 98, 22987–22994. doi: 10.1029/93JD02553. Shen YP, Wang GY. 2013. Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI fifth assessment report. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 35(5), 1068–1076 (in Chinese with English abstract). Shi C, Jiang Z, Chen W. 2018. Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1. 5 oC and 2 oC global warming targets. Advances in Climate Change Research, 9(2), 120–129. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.11.003. Shi C, Jiang ZH, Zhu LH, Zhang XB, Yao YY, Laurent LI. 2020. Risks of temperature extremes over China under 1. 5 oC and 2 oC global warming. Advances in Climate Change Research, 11, 172–184. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.006. Shi D, Zheng JW. 1999. Present situation and prospect of hydrate research and development in the world. Advances in Earth Science, 14(4), 330–339 (in Chinese with English abstract). Shi PJ, Sun S, Wang M. 2014. Climate change zoning in China (1961‒2010). Chinese Science:Earth Science, 44(10), 2294–2306 (in Chinese with English abstract). Sloan ED, Koh CA. 2008. Clathrate Hydrates of Natural Gases (3rd ed. ). New York, CRC Press of Tayor & Francis Group, 1‒721. Sloan ED. 1998. Clathrate hydrates of natural gases (2nd edition). New York, Marcel Dekker Inc. , 1‒628. Song C, Pei T, Zhou CH. 2012. Research progress of temperature change in Qinghai Xizang Plateau since 1960. Progress in Geography, 31(11), 1503–1509 (in Chinese with English abstract). Su C, Zhang QY. 2021. China leads global climate governance. World Environment, 1, 33–35. Subramanian M. 2019. Humans versus earth: The quest to define the Anthropocene. Nature, 572(7768), 168–171. doi: 10.1038/d41586-019-02381-2. Sultan N, Foucher JP, Cochonat P. 2004. Dynamics of gas hydrate: Case of the Congo continental slope. Marine Geology, 206, 1–18. doi: 10.1016/j.margeo.2004.03.005. Sun C, Jiang Z, Li W. 2019. Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1. 5 oC and 2. 0 oC. Scientific reports, 9(1), 1–11. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-50036-z. Suo L, Otterå OH, Bentsen M, Gao Y, Johannessen OM. 2013. External forcing of the early 20th century Arctic warming. Tellus, 65, 20578. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.20578. Svendsen L, Keenlyside N, Bethke I, Gao Y, Omrani NE. 2018. Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic. Nature Climate Change, 8(9), 793–797. doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1. Tan CP, Yang JP, Mi R. 2010. Analysis of climate change characteristics in the southern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1971 to 2007. Glaciology and Geocryology, 32(6), 111–1120 (in Chinese with English abstract). Tang MC, Bai CY, Feng S. 1998. Three abrupt changes of plateau climate in this century and their correlation with astronomical factors. Plateau Meteorology, 17(3), 250–257 (in Chinese with English abstract). Tang MC, Xu MC. 1984. Climate change in Qilian Mountains. Plateau Meteorology, 3(4), 21–33. Thomas ZA, Jones RT, Turney CSM. 2020. Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial. Quaternary Science Reviews, 233, 106222. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106222. Turetsky MR, Abbott BW, Jones MC, Anthony KW, Olefeldt D, Schuur EAG, Koven C, McGuire AD, Grosse G, Kuhry P, Hugelius G, Lawrence DM, Gibson C, Sannel ABK. 2019. Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release. Nature, 569, 32–34. doi: 10.1038/d41586-019-01313-4. Turner J, Barrand NE, Bracegirdle TJ. 2014. Antarctic climate change and the environment: An update. Polar record, 50(3), 237–259. doi: 10.1017/S0032247413000296. Turney CSM, Jones RT, McKay NP. 2020. A global mean sea surface temperature dataset for the Last Interglacial (129‒116 kyr) and contribution of thermal expansion to sea-level change. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 12(4), 1–21. doi: 10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020. UNFCC. 2015. Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Report No. FCCC/CP/2015/L. 9/Rev. 1. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf. Waisman H, DeConinck H, Rogelj J. 2019. Key technological enablers for ambitious climate goals: Insights from the IPCC special report on global warming of 1. 5 oC. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 1–5. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4c0b. Wang AT, Li J, Wang Q, Fang B, Yuan GL, Duan XC. 2021. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sedimentary cores of Tibetan Plateau: Influence of global warming on cold trapping. Environmental Pollution, 278(116916), 1–9. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.116916. Wang B, Bao Q, Hoskins B. 2008. Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(14), L14702. doi: 10.1029/2008GL034330. Wang H, Lu SL, Ding J, Chu YB, Tang HL, Yan Q. 2020. Study on the impact of climate change on Antarctic ice lake: An example in Emory and Larsen A ice shelves. Chinese Journal of Polar Research, 32(3), 322–335 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wang KX, Zhang YS, Zhang T, Yu KL, Guo YH, Ma N. 2020. Analysis of climate change in Selinco basin of Qinghai Tibet Plateau from 1979 to 2017. Arid Zone Research, 37(3), 652–662 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wang N, Li DL, Zhang J. 2010. Research progress of temperature change in Qinghai Xizang Plateau. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 28(3), 265–269 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wang PK, Zhu YH, Lu ZQ, Huang X, Pang SJ, Zhang S. 2014. Gas hydrate stability zone migration occurred in the Qilian mountain permafrost, Qinghai, Northwest China: Evidences from pyrite morphology and pyrite sulfur isotope. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 98, 8–17. doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2013.10.006. Wang PL, Tang GL, Cao LJ. 2012. Relationship between temperature change and elevation and latitude in Qinghai Tibet Plateau from 1981 to 2010. Research Progress on Climate Change, 8(5), 313 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wang PP, Kuang HH, Li JY. 2020. Correlation analysis between glacier and climate change‒a case study of Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 48(5), 85–92 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wang PX, Tian J, Huang EQ. 2018. Earth System and Evolution. Beijing, Science Press, 565 (in Chinese). Wang Q, Zhai BM. 2021. Important progress in climate change science reflected in the international scientific assessment of climate change. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 11(3), 113–118 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wang QC, Qin NS, Tang HY. 2007. Facts and characteristics of climate change in Qinghai Plateau in Recent 44 years. Arid Zone Research, 24(2), 234–239 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wang R, Liu ZF. 2020. Stable isotope evidence for recent global warming hiatus. Journal of Earth Science, 31(2), 419–424. doi: 10.1007/s12583-019-1239-4. Wang Y, Li X, Miao QL. 2004. Study on the characteristics of temperature change in the plateau in recent 50 years. Geography in Arid Zone, 27(1), 41–46 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wayne RP. 1985. Chemistry of the Atmospheres: An Introduction to the Atmospheres of Earth, the Planets, and Their Satellites. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1‒361. Wignall PB, Hallam A. 1993. Griesbachian (Early Triassic) paleoenviromental changes in the Salt Range, Pakistan and southeast China and their bearing on the Permo-Triassic extinction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 102, 215‒237. Winguth AME, Maier-Reimer E. 2005. Causes of the marine productivity and oxygen changes associated with the Permian-Triassic boundary: A reevaluation with ocean general circulation models. Marine Geology, 217(3‒4), 283‒304. doi: 0.1016/j.margeo.2005.02.011. WMO. 2018. WMO Climate Statement: Past 4 Years Warmest on Record. Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization. WMO. 2019. 2019 Set to Be 2nd or 3rd Warmest Year on Record. Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization. WMO. 2020. World Meteorological Organization statement on the state of the global climate in 2019. Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization. Wolff E W, Barbante C, Becagli S. 2010. Changes in environment over the last 800, 000 years from chemical analysis of the EPICA Dome C ice core. Quaternary Science Reviews, 29(1), 285–295. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.06.013. Woo KS, Kim JK, Lee JI, Lim HS, Yoo KC, Summerhayes CP, Ahn IY, Kang SH, Kil Y. 2019. Glacial melting pulses in the Antarctica: Evidence for different responses to regional effects of global warming recorded in Antarctic bivalve shell (Laternula elliptica). Journal of Marine Systems, 197(103179), 1–9. doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2019.05.005. World Bank. 2012. Turn down the heat: Why a 4 oC warmer world must be avoided. A report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, Washington DC. Wouters B, Martin-Español A, Helm V. 2015. Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula. Science, 348, 899–903. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa5727. Wu CG, He XJ, Sheng CM. 2011. Discussion on comprehensive evaluation method of energy security. Journal of Natural Resources, 26(6), 964–970 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wu CQ, Tang DY. 2017. Change of temperature in the Tibetan Plateau in the context of global warming in recent 50 years. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 24(6), 262–266 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wu KP, Liu SY, Guo WQ. 2020. Glacier variation and its response to climate change in the Mount Namjagbarwa from 1980 to 2015. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 42(4), 1115–1125 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wu NY, Yang SX, Wang HB. 2009. Fluid migration system of gas hydrate accumulation in Shenhu sea area on the northern slope of the South China Sea Journal of Geophysics, 52(6), 1641‒1650 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wu QB, Jiang GL, Zhang P, Deng YS, Yang YZ, Hou YD, Zhang BG. 2015. Evidence of natural gas hydrate in Kunlun Pass basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 60, 68–74 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.1360/N972014-00088. Wu SG, Han TF, Zhang DQ, Li JF. 2020. Analysis of climate change in Wudaoliang area from 1961 to 2019. Qinghai Prataculture, 29(3), 48–52,58 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wu SH, Yin YH, Deng D. 2005. Climate change trend in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau in recent 30 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 60(1), 3–11 (in Chinese with English abstract). Wu TH, Qin YH, Wu XD. 2017. Spatiotemporal changes of freezing thawing indices and their response to recent climate change on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2013. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 132(3/4), 1187–1199. doi: 10.1007/s00704-017-2157-y. Wu XD, Lin ZY. 1981. A preliminary analysis of the characteristics of plateau climate change in historical periods. Journal of Meteorology, 39(1), 90–97. Wuebbles DJ, Hayhoe K. 2002. Atmospheric methane and global change. Earth-Science Reviews, 57, 177–210. doi: 10.1016/S0012-8252(01)00062-9. Xu HL, Chang J, Guo LM, Sun WJ. 2021. Response of thermal-moisture condition within active layer in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Xizang plateau to climate change. Plateau Meteorology, 40(2), 229–243 (in Chinese with English abstract). Xu LJ, Hu ZY, Zhao YN, Hong XY. 2019. Climate change characteristics in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during 1961‒2010. Plateau Meteorology, 38(5), 911–919 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00137. Xu XZ, Cheng GD, Yu QH. 1999. Research prospects and suggestions of natural gas hydrate in permafrost area of Qinghai Tibet Plateau. Advances in Earth Science, 14(2), 201–204 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yamanouchi T. 2011. Early 20th century warming in the Arctic: A review. Polar science, 5(1), 53–71. doi: 10.1016/j.polar.2010.10.002. Yan LJ. 2020. Impact of climate change on lake changes in Tibet (1973‒2017). Acta Geoscientica Sinica, 41(4), 493–503 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yan QD. 2008. Antarctica‒ the “thermometer” of global warming. Journal of Nature, 5, 259–261 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yan R, An GH. 2021. Analysis of climate change characteristics in Gonghe Basin in recent 60 years. Journal of Agricultural Catastropholgy, 11(1), 117–120 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yang JP, Ding YJ, Chen RS. 2007. Preliminary study on ecological environment vulnerability assessment in the source area of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Chinese Desert, 27(6), 1012–1017 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yang JP, Ding YJ, Fang YP. 2015. Research system of vulnerability and adaptation of Cryosphere and its changes. Advances in Earth Science, 30(5), 517–529 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yang XL, Ding WK, Liu MC. 2011. Change characteristics of temperature in Eastern Hexi Corridor in recent 50 years. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 25(8), 76–81 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yao L, Wu QM. 2002. Characteristics of climate change in the Qinghai Xizang Plateau. Meteorological Science and Technology, 30(3), 163–164 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yao TD, Piao SL, Shen MG. 2017. Chained impacts on modern environment of interaction between westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan Plateau. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 32(9), 976–984 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yao TD, Qin DH, Xu BQ, Yang MX, Duan KQ, Wang NL, Wang YQ, Hou SG. 2006. The temperature changes of Qinghai Tibet Plateau in the past 1000 years recorded by ice cores. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2(3), 99–103 (in Chinese with English abstract). Yao TD, Wu GJ, Xu BQ. 2019. Asian water tower change and its impacts. Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 34(11), 1203–1209 (in Chinese with English abstract). Ye JL, Qin XW, Qiu HJ, Liang QY, Dong YF, Wei JG, Lu HL, Lu JA, Shi YH, Zhong C, Xia Z. 2018. Preliminary results of environmental monitoring of the natural gas hydrate production test in the South China Sea. China Geology, 1(2), 202–209. doi: 10.31035/cg2018029. Ye PL, Zhang Q, Wang Y, Xu LL, Han LJ, Li R. 2020. Climate change in the upper Yellow River Basin and its impact on ecological vegetation and runoff from 1980 to 2018. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 43(6), 967–979 (in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20200924001. Yin SY, Wang T, Hua W. 2020. Mid-summer surface air temperature and its internal variability over China at 1.5 oC and 2 oC of global warming. Advances in Climate Change Research, 11(3), 185–197. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.005. Yongzhu ZG, Ciren DW, Cang L, Gesang ZM, Zunzhui BM. 2017. Study on temperature variation characteristics of Qinghai Xizang Plateau. Tibetan Science and Technology, 2, 63–65. You QL, Wu FY, Shen LC, Pepin N, Jiang ZH, Kang SC. 2020. Tibetan Plateau amplification of climate extremes under global warming of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. Global and Planetary Change, 192(103261), 1‒10. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103261. Zeng GY, Wang FK, Ha JL, Xu XL, Kong L. 2020. Response of shallow ground temperature to climate change in the southern margin of Qaidam Basin. Resources and Environmental Science, 22, 164–167 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zeng P, Sun FY, Liu YY, Wang YK, Li G, Che Y. 2021. Mapping future droughts under global warming across China: A combined multi-timescale meteorological drought index and SOM-Kmeans approach. Weather and Climate Extremes, 31(100304), 1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100304. Zhang GW, Zeng G, Iyakaremye V, You QL. 2020. Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 oC and 2.0 oC global warming. Advances in Climate Change Research, 11, 198–209. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2020.08.003. Zhang YH, Xu CJ, Qi Q, Hou GL. 2011. Analysis of climate change and its ecological effects in the Qinghai Xizang Plateau. Journal of Qinghai University (Nature Science), 29(4), 18–22 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zhang YJ, Dong WJ, Yu YQ. 2004. Prediction of future climate change trend in Western China. Climate and Environment Research, 9(2), 342–349 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zhao SM, Cheng WM, Yuan YC, Fan ZM, Zhang J, Zhou CD. 2022. Global permafrost simulation and prediction from 2010 to 2100 under different climate scenarios. Environmental Modelling and Software, 149, 105307,1–8. Zhao ZC, Wang SW, Luo Y. 2007. Evaluation and prediction of temperature rise since the establishment of IPCC. Research Progress on Climate Change, 7, 153–184 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zheng JY, Liu Y, Hao ZX, Ge QS. 2021. State-of-art and perspective on global synthesis studies of climate change for the past 2000 years. Quaternary Sciences, 41(2), 309–322 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zheng R, Li DL, Jiang YC. 2015. New characteristics of temperature changes in the Tibetan Plateau under the background of global warming. Plateau Meteorology, 34(6), 1531–1539 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zhou YW, Guo DX, Chu GQ, Cheng GD, Li SD. 2000. China’s Permafrost. Beijing, Science Publishing House, 329‒353 (in Chinese). Zhu WQ, Chen LX, Zhou ZJ. 2001. Several characteristics of climate change in the modern Qinghai Xizang Plateau. Chinese Science (Series D), 31(S1), 327–334 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zhu YH, Lu ZQ, Xie XL. 2011. Prediction of potential distribution area of natural gas hydrate in Qinghai Xizang Plateau. Geological Bulletin, 30(12), 1918–1926 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zhu YH, Zhang YQ, Wen HJ, Lu ZQ. 2009. Discovery of natural gas hydrate in the frozen area of Qilian Mountain, Qinghai. Acta Geologica Sinica, 83(11), 1762–1771 (in Chinese with English abstract). Zou DF, Zhao L, Sheng Y. 2017. A new map of permafrost distribution on the Tibetan Plateau. The Cryosphere, 11(6), 2527–2542. doi: 10.5194/tc-11-2527-2017. -
Access History
Figures(16)
Tables(5)
Export File
Citation
Zhen-quan Lu, Chu-guo Wu, Neng-you Wu, Hai-long Lu, Ting Wang, Rui Xiao, Hui Liu, Xin-he Wu, 2022. Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (1960‒2050) under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions, China Geology, 5, 475-509. doi: 10.31035/cg2022034
Format
Content
DownLoad:
-
Figure 1.
Global distribution of permafrost areas (after Zhao SM et al., 2022).
-
Figure 2.
Curves of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations reconstructed from Antarctic ice cores and synthetic temperature curve (after Beeman JC et al., 2019).
-
Figure 3.
Sketch map showing the distribution of the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (modified from Zhou YW et al., 2000).
-
Figure 4.
Global mean temperature anomalies in the past 2000 years reconstructed based on proxy data (after PAGES 2K Consortium et al., 2019).
-
Figure 5.
Paleoclimate records of the Kunlun Pass (KP) section of northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and global proxies (after Cheng F et al., 2022).
-
Figure 6.
Correlation between the warming trends of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Northern Hemisphere (after Yao TD et al., 2006).
-
Figure 7.
Thickness of active layer in permafrost area along Qinghai-Tibet Highway and the temperature change at the bottom of the active layer (after National Climate Change Centre, China Meteorological Administration, 2022).
-
Figure 8.
Characteristics of the mean temperature before and after the abrupt change of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2010 (Xu LJ et al., 2019).
-
Figure 9.
Map showing the distribution of NGH prospect areas in China (modified from Zhu YH et al., 2011).
-
Figure 10.
Map showing the distribution of drilled wells that encountered natural gas hydrates and the location of a production test in the Qilian Mountains permafrost region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (after Lu ZQ et al., 2020).
-
Figure 11.
Natural gas hydrates collected from wells drilled in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (after Lu ZQ et al., 2011).
-
Figure 12.
Histograms showing the horizons of the natural gas hydrates and permafrost in the Qilian Mountains permafrost region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (after Lu ZQ et al., 2020).
-
Figure 13.
Gas hydrate genetic diagrams of C1/(C2+C3) vs. δ13C1 (left) and δDC1 vs. δ13C1 (right) (after Lu Z et al., 2011).
-
Figure 14.
Effects of permafrost changes on the NGHs of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the background of global warming (modified from Wang PK et al., 2014).
-
Figure 15.
Changes in NGHs formation conditions under different permafrost thicknesses (left) and the influence of temperature and pressure on NGHs (right) (after Lu ZQ et al., 2008).
-
Figure 16.
Prediction of the air temperature, reduced thickness of hydrates and released CH4 on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the next 30 years.