| Citation: |
Fu Wang, Xue-zheng Liu, Yong Li, Heng Yu, Ming-zheng Wen, Yun-zhuang Hu, 2024. Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models: Taking Bohai Bay as an example, China Geology, 7, 494-504. doi: 10.31035/CG2024074
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Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models: Taking Bohai Bay as an example
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Abstract
The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined. With increasing global sea-level due to climate change, the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently, especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence. Therefore, the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development. In this paper, the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge. The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km2; the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics, considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water, show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km2, which is far less than 8000 km2; while, when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise, the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100. The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10‒30 km of the Bohai Bay, in where almost all major coastal projects are located. The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed, for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay. This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.
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References
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Fu Wang, Xue-zheng Liu, Yong Li, Heng Yu, Ming-zheng Wen, Yun-zhuang Hu, 2024. Risk assessment of coastal flooding disaster by storm surge based on Elevation-Area method and hydrodynamic models: Taking Bohai Bay as an example, China Geology, 7, 494-504. doi: 10.31035/CG2024074
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Figure 1.
Sketch map of the Bohai Bay and study area. Basemap cited from:
https://map.tianditu.gov.cn/ . -
Figure 2.
Comparison of simulated and predicted tide levels during the storm surge in Huanghua Port.
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Figure 3.
Comparison of simulated and measured tidal levels during the storm surge in Huanghua Port.
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Figure 4.
Flooding area based on Elevation Area Method.
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Figure 5.
Flooding area by hydrodynamic models in 2020.
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Figure 6.
Flooding area by hydrodynamic models in 2050.
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Figure 7.
Flooding area by hydrodynamic models in 2100.
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Figure 8.
Areas affected by storm surge for a return period of 100-year in 2100.