| China Geological Environment Monitoring Institute, China Geological Disaster Prevention Engineering Industry Association | Host |
| Citation: |
JIE Honghu, JIANG Shuihua, CHANG Zhilu, HUANG Jinsong, HUANG Faming. Probabilistic inverse-analysis and reliability prediction of rainfall-induced landslides for slope with multi-source information[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2024, 35(1): 28-36. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202309029
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Probabilistic inverse-analysis and reliability prediction of rainfall-induced landslides for slope with multi-source information
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Abstract
Probabilistic inverse-analysis is an essential approach to infer statistical characteristics of uncertain soil parameters, making the slope reliability assessment closer to engineering reality. However, current probabilistic inverse analysis rarely integrates multi-source information, including monitored data, field observation information, and slope survival records. Conducting the probabilistic inverse-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating the multi-source information is a challenging issue due to the involvement of thousands of random variables and the evaluation of high-dimensional likelihood functions. In this paper, a modified Bayesian updating with subset simulation (mBUS) method is combined with adaptive conditional sampling (aCS) algorithm to establish a framework for probabilistic inverse analysis of spatially variable soil parameters and reliability prediction of slopes. The effectiveness of this framework is validated using a highway slope as a case study. The research results show that the posterior statistical characteristics of soil parameters obtained by integrating multi-source information are in good agreement with field observation results. Additionally, the probability of slope failure under heavy rainfall on September 12, 2004 with the updated soil parameters is 23.1 %, which is in line with the actual slope instability. Within this framework, multi-source information can be fully utilized to address high-dimensional probabilistic inverse analysis problems.
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References
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JIE Honghu, JIANG Shuihua, CHANG Zhilu, HUANG Jinsong, HUANG Faming. Probabilistic inverse-analysis and reliability prediction of rainfall-induced landslides for slope with multi-source information[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2024, 35(1): 28-36. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202309029
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Figure 1.
Illustration diagram of slope numerical model
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Figure 2.
Rainfall data for September 10−11, 2004
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Figure 3.
A typical realization of the random fields of saturated hydraulic conductivities and corresponding seepage analysis results
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Figure 4.
Comparison of pressure heads and factors of safety calculated using the surrogate model and finite element method
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Figure 5.
Comparison of the posterior PDFs of ks at two arbitrary locations on the slope
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Figure 6.
The prior and posterior distributions of pressure heads at the 4 monitoring points
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Figure 7.
Spatial distribution of posterior mean and standard deviation of effective cohesion and internal friction angle
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Figure 8.
PDFs of FS at the end of September 11, 2004 with incorporating different information
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Figure 9.
Variation of prior and posterior probability of slope failure with rainfall duration