China Geological Environmental Monitoring InstituteHost
Advanced Search
Previous Article Next Article
2025 Vol. 52, No. 3
Article Contents
Article navigation > Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology > 2025 > 52(3): 68-78
Next Article Previous Article

YAO Hongyu, AI Ronghui, KANG Xueyuan, WU Jichun, SHI Xiaoqing. Prediction and uncertainty analysis of pollution flux of typical chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminated sites[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2025, 52(3): 68-78. doi: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202312041
Citation: YAO Hongyu, AI Ronghui, KANG Xueyuan, WU Jichun, SHI Xiaoqing. Prediction and uncertainty analysis of pollution flux of typical chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminated sites[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2025, 52(3): 68-78. doi: 10.16030/j.cnki.issn.1000-3665.202312041
shu

Prediction and uncertainty analysis of pollution flux of typical chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminated sites

  • Key Laboratory of Surficial Geochemistry, Ministry of Education （School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University）, Nanjing, Jiangsu　210023, China

More Information
Received Date:  25 December 2023
Revised Date:  03 May 2024
Publish Date:  15 May 2025
    Abstract

  • Accurate assessment of the pollution flux and its uncertainty in the plume boundary of NAPL dissolved phase pollution in organic contaminated sites is very important for site risk assessment and decision management. Due to the complexity of underground water flow field, the directions of dissolved pollution plume diffusion of multiple pollution sources are not completely consistent. Traditional numerical models require a lot of data, and usually, the site data is difficult to meet the needs, while current commonly used analytical models do not consider the complexity of groundwater flow field and the simultaneous existence of multiple pollution sources. To solve this issue, this study utilized soil and groundwater monitoring data from a typical chlorinated hydrocarbon polluted site in Changzhou, applying an upscale analytical model integrated with the flow function and coordinate transformation method. The maximum likelihood estimation inversion method was employed to identify pollution source areas, estimate structural parameters, groundwater flow rates, and equivalent low-permeability medium thickness, and predict pollution flux at the site boundary. The uncertainty is evaluated based on linearized uncertainty transfer method. The inversion results show that considering a complex flow field rather than assuming single-direction flow significantly reduces parameter uncertainty while improving agreement between simulated and observed values. The pollution situation at the site is still serious, and the pollution scope has exceeded the field limit. The pollution plume needs to be controlled and repaired in time. Under natural attenuation conditions, the simulation results show that After model correction, the uncertainty of predictions remains minimal, with the 95% confidence interval changed from (73.66±0.71) g/d in 2023 to (66.77±0.87) g/d in 2027. The results of site pollution flux prediction provide the scientific basis for risk assessment and restoration of the site.

    • FullText(HTML)
  • 加载中
    • References
  • [1] 陆强,李辉,林匡飞,等. 上海浦东某氯代烃场地地下水污染现状调查[J]. 环境科学学报,2016,36(5):1730 − 1737. [LU Qiang,LI Hui,LIN Kuangfei,et al. Investigation of chlorinated hydrocarbons in groundwater from a typical contaminated site in pudong district,Shanghai[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(5):1730 − 1737. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    LU Qiang, LI Hui, LIN Kuangfei, et al. Investigation of chlorinated hydrocarbons in groundwater from a typical contaminated site in pudong district, Shanghai[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2016, 36（5）: 1730 − 1737. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [2] 保航,江卓珊,罗彩访,等. 中国城市污染地块开发利用中的问题与对策[R/OL]. 南京:南京大学(溧水) 生态环境研究院,2019. [2023-06-09]. [BAO Hang, JIANG Zhuoshan, LUO Caifang, et al. Problems and countermeasures in the development and utilization of polluted land in Chinese cities[R/OL]. Nanjing: Lishui Institute of Ecological Environment, Nanjing University, 2019. (2019-04-17)[2023-06-09]. Https://www.greenpeace.org.cn/2019/04/17/redeveloping-the-polluted-land-under-chinas-cities-problems-and-solutions-report/. (in Chinese)]

    Google Scholar

    BAO Hang, JIANG Zhuoshan, LUO Caifang, et al. Problems and countermeasures in the development and utilization of polluted land in Chinese cities[R/OL]. Nanjing: Lishui Institute of Ecological Environment, Nanjing University, 2019. （2019-04-17）[2023-06-09]. Https://www.greenpeace.org.cn/2019/04/17/redeveloping-the-polluted-land-under-chinas-cities-problems-and-solutions-report/. （in Chinese）

    Google Scholar

    [3] 朱辉,叶淑君,吴吉春,等. 中国典型有机污染场地土层岩性和污染物特征分析[J]. 地学前缘,2021,28(5):26 − 34. [ZHU Hui,YE Shujun,WU Jichun,et al. Characteristics of soil lithology and pollutants in typical contamination sites in China[J]. Earth Science Frontiers,2021,28(5):26 − 34. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    ZHU Hui, YE Shujun, WU Jichun, et al. Characteristics of soil lithology and pollutants in typical contamination sites in China[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2021, 28（5）: 26 − 34. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [4] KUEPER B H,REDMAN D,STARR R C,et al. A field experiment to study the behavior of tetrachloroethylene below the water table:Spatial distribution of residual and pooled DNAPL[J]. Ground Water,1993,31(5):756 − 766. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6584.1993.tb00848.x

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [5] MERCER J W,COHEN R M. A review of immiscible fluids in the subsurface:Properties,models,characterization and remediation[J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,1990,6(2):107 − 163. doi: 10.1016/0169-7722(90)90043-G

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [6] FRIED J J. Groundwater pollution:Theory,methodology,modelling and practical rules[M]. New York:Elsevier Scientific Pub. Co. ,1975.

    Google Scholar

    [7] 宋美钰,施小清,马春龙,等. 复杂DNAPL污染源区溶解相污染通量的升尺度计算[J]. 中国环境科学,2022,42(5):2095 − 2104. [SONG Meiyu,SHI Xiaoqing,MA Chunlong,et al. Upscaling dissolved phase mass flux for complex DNAPL source zones[J]. China Environmental Science,2022,42(5):2095 − 2104. (in Chinese with English abstract)] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6923.2022.05.013

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    SONG Meiyu, SHI Xiaoqing, MA Chunlong, et al. Upscaling dissolved phase mass flux for complex DNAPL source zones[J]. China Environmental Science, 2022, 42（5）: 2095 − 2104. （in Chinese with English abstract） doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6923.2022.05.013

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [8] 边淑贞. 氯代烃污染地下水中重质非水相液体通量估算研究[D]. 保定:河北农业大学,2015. [BIAN Shuzhen. Research on contaminant mass flux of dense Non-Aqueous phase liquids in chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminated site[D]. Baoding:Agricultural University of Hebei,2015. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    BIAN Shuzhen. Research on contaminant mass flux of dense Non-Aqueous phase liquids in chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminated site[D]. Baoding: Agricultural University of Hebei, 2015. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [9] GUILBEAULT M A,PARKER B L,CHERRY J A. Mass and flux distributions from DNAPL zones in sandy aquifers[J]. Groundwater,2005,43(1):70 − 86. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2005.tb02287.x

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [10] INTEGRATED DNAPL SITE STRATEGY TEAM. Use and measurement of mass flux and mass discharge[EB/OL]. Washington:Interstate Technology & Regulatory Council,2010. (2021-06)[2023-06-09]. https://maf-1.itrcweb.org/.

    Google Scholar

    [11] FALTA R W,BASU N,RAO P S. Assessing impacts of partial mass depletion in DNAPL source zones:II. Coupling source strength functions to plume evolution[J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2005,79(1/2):45 − 66.

    Google Scholar

    [12] GUO Yongli,WEN Zhang,ZHANG Cheng,et al. Contamination characteristics of chlorinated hydrocarbons in a fractured karst aquifer using TMVOC and hydro-chemical techniques[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2021,794:148717. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148717

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [13] KAZEMI NIA KORRANI A,SEPEHRNOORI K,DELSHAD M. Coupling IPhreeqc with UTCHEM to model reactive flow and transport[J]. Computers & Geosciences,2015,82:152 − 169.

    Google Scholar

    [14] 张小茅,周俊,熊小锋,等. 地下水环境影响评价中污染物运移模拟软件的适宜性评估[J]. 环境科学研究,2019,32(1):10 − 16. [ZHANG Xiaomao,ZHOU Jun,XIONG Xiaofeng,et al. Evaluation of contaminant transport modeling software for groundwater environmental impact assessment[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences,2019,32(1):10 − 16. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    ZHANG Xiaomao, ZHOU Jun, XIONG Xiaofeng, et al. Evaluation of contaminant transport modeling software for groundwater environmental impact assessment[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2019, 32（1）: 10 − 16. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [15] 孙科,吴吉春,施小清,等. 应用DNAPL plume快速评估场地DNAPL污染[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2013,40(6):92 − 97. [SUN Ke,WU Jichun,SHI Xiaoqing,et al. Rapid evaluation of field DNAPL contamination based on DNAPL plume[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology,2013,40(6):92 − 97. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    SUN Ke, WU Jichun, SHI Xiaoqing, et al. Rapid evaluation of field DNAPL contamination based on DNAPL plume[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2013, 40（6）: 92 − 97. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [16] FARHAT S K,NEWELL C J,LEE S A,et al. Impact of matrix diffusion on the migration of groundwater plumes for Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) and other non-degradable compounds[J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2022,247:103987. doi: 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2022.103987

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [17] 薛佩佩,文章,梁杏. 地质统计学在含水层参数空间变异研究中的应用进展与发展趋势[J]. 地质科技通报,2022,41(1):209 − 222. [XUE Peipei,WEN Zhang,LIANG Xing. Application and development trend of geostatistics in the research of spatial variation of aquifer parameters[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology,2022,41(1):209 − 222. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    XUE Peipei, WEN Zhang, LIANG Xing. Application and development trend of geostatistics in the research of spatial variation of aquifer parameters[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41（1）: 209 − 222. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [18] 郭芷琳,马瑞,张勇,等. 地下水污染物在高度非均质介质中的迁移过程:机理与数值模拟综述[J]. 中国科学(地球科学),2021,51(11):1817 − 1836. [GUO Zhilin,MA Rui,ZHANG Yong,et al. Contaminant transport in heterogeneous aquifers:A critical review of mechanisms and numerical methods of non-Fickian dispersion[J]. Scientia Sinica(Terrae),2021,51(11):1817 − 1836. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    GUO Zhilin, MA Rui, ZHANG Yong, et al. Contaminant transport in heterogeneous aquifers: A critical review of mechanisms and numerical methods of non-Fickian dispersion[J]. Scientia Sinica（Terrae）, 2021, 51（11）: 1817 − 1836. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [19] ZHU Jianting,SYKES J F. Simple screening models of NAPL dissolution in the subsurface[J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2004,72(1/4):245 − 258.

    Google Scholar

    [20] PARKER J C,PARK E. Modeling field-scale dense nonaqueous phase liquid dissolution kinetics in heterogeneous aquifers[J]. Water Resources Research,2004,40(5):147 − 158.

    Google Scholar

    [21] STEWART L D,CHAMBON J C,WIDDOWSON M A,et al. Upscaled modeling of complex DNAPL dissolution[J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2022,244:103920. doi: 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2021.103920

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [22] CHRIST J A,RAMSBURG C A,PENNELL K D,et al. Predicting DNAPL mass discharge from pool-dominated source zones[J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2010,114(1/4):18 − 34.

    Google Scholar

    [23] 程洲,吴吉春,徐红霞,等. DNAPL在透镜体及表面活性剂作用下的运移研究[J]. 中国环境科学,2014,34(11):2888 − 2896. [CHENG Zhou,WU Jichun,XU Hongxia,et al. Investigation of the migration characteristic of DNAPL in aquifer with lenses and under the action of surfactant flushing[J]. China Environmental Science,2014,34(11):2888 − 2896. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    CHENG Zhou, WU Jichun, XU Hongxia, et al. Investigation of the migration characteristic of DNAPL in aquifer with lenses and under the action of surfactant flushing[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014, 34（11）: 2888 − 2896. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [24] LI Hailong,YANG Qichang. A least-squares penalty method algorithm for inverse problems of steady-state aquifer models[J]. Advances in Water Resources,2000,23(8):867 − 880. doi: 10.1016/S0309-1708(00)00018-X

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [25] HOLLENBECK K J,JENSEN K H,et al. Maximum-likelihood estimation of unsaturated hydraulic parameters[J]. Journal of Hydrology,210(1/4):192–205.

    Google Scholar

    [26] YOUNES A,ZAOUALI J,FAHS M,et al. Bayesian soil parameter estimation:Results of percolation-drainage vs infiltration laboratory experiments[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2018,565:770 − 778. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.082

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [27] BENTLEY L R. Least squares solution and calibration of steady state groundwater flow systems[J]. Advances in Water Resources,1993,16(2):137 − 148. doi: 10.1016/0309-1708(93)90004-Y

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [28] LIU Xiaoyi,CARDIFF M A,KITANIDIS P K,et al. Parameter estimation in nonlinear environmental problems[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2010,24(7):1003 − 1022. doi: 10.1007/s00477-010-0395-y

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [29] GILKS W R,ROBERTS G O,GEORGE E I. Adaptive direction sampling[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D(The Statistician),1994,43(1):179 − 189.

    Google Scholar

    [30] CARDIFF M,LIU Xiaoyi,KITANIDIS P K,et al. Cost optimization of DNAPL source and plume remediation under uncertainty using a semi-analytic model[J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2010,113(1/4):25 − 43.

    Google Scholar

    [31] PARKER J,KIM U,BORDEN B. A practical approach for remediation performance assessment and optimization at DNAPL sites for early identification and correction of problems considering uncertainty[R]. America:University of Tennessee,2018.

    Google Scholar

    [32] 袁松虎,张鹏,康学远,等. 含水层非均质性与污染修复[J]. 地球科学,2024,49(1):375 − 378. [YUAN Songhu,ZHANG Peng,KANG Xueyuan,et al. Aquifer heterogeneity and contamination remediation[J]. Earth Science,2024,49(1):375 − 378. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    YUAN Songhu, ZHANG Peng, KANG Xueyuan, et al. Aquifer heterogeneity and contamination remediation[J]. Earth Science, 2024, 49（1）: 375 − 378. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [33] PARKER J,KIM U,KITANIDIS P,et al. Stochastic cost optimization of DNAPL remediation–method description and sensitivity study[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software,2012,38:74 − 88.

    Google Scholar

    [34] GENUCHTEN M,WIERENGA P J. Mass transfer studies in sorbing porous media I. analytical solutions[J]. Soil Science Society of America Journal,1976,40(4):473 − 480. doi: 10.2136/sssaj1976.03615995004000040011x

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [35] PARKER J C,KIM U. An upscaled approach for transport in media with extended tailing due to back-diffusion using analytical and numerical solutions of the advection dispersion equation[J]. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology,2015,182:157 − 172. doi: 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2015.09.008

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [36] MAYER A S,HUANG Changlin. Development and application of a coupled-process parameter inversion model based on the maximum likelihood estimation method[J]. Advances in Water Resources,1999,22(8):841 − 853. doi: 10.1016/S0309-1708(98)00049-9

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [37] KITANIDIS P K. Quasi‐linear geostatistical theory for inversing[J]. Water Resources Research,1995,31(10):2411 − 2419. doi: 10.1029/95WR01945

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [38] KITANIDIS P K. Parametric estimation of covariances of regionalized variables1[J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1987,23(4):557 − 567. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1987.tb00832.x

    CrossRef Google Scholar

    [39] 中华人民共和国生态环境部. 地下水环境监测技术规范:HJ 164—2020[S]. 北京:中国环境科学出版社,2020. [Ministry of Ecology and Environment of People’s Republic of China. Technical specifications for environmental monitoring of groundwater:HJ 164—2020[S]. Beijing:China Environmental Press,2020. (in Chinese)]

    Google Scholar

    Ministry of Ecology and Environment of People’s Republic of China. Technical specifications for environmental monitoring of groundwater: HJ 164—2020[S]. Beijing: China Environmental Press, 2020. （in Chinese）

    Google Scholar

    [40] 兰天,焦友军,施小清,等. 观测数据权重对地下水有机污染物生物降解模型参数估计的影响[J]. 环境科学学报,2016,36(8):3040 − 3048. [LAN Tian,JIAO Youjun,SHI Xiaoqing,et al. Effect of the observation weights on model parameter estimation for biodegradation of organic containments in groundwater[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2016,36(8):3040 − 3048. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    LAN Tian, JIAO Youjun, SHI Xiaoqing, et al. Effect of the observation weights on model parameter estimation for biodegradation of organic containments in groundwater[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2016, 36（8）: 3040 − 3048. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [41] 杜方舟,施小清,康学远. 污染地块中NAPL相污染源存在的判定方法改进及软件开发[J]. 安全与环境工程,2022,29(5):175 − 182. [DU Fangzhou,SHI Xiaoqing,KANG Xueyuan. Improved method and software development for assessing NAPL phase presence in contaminated sites[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering,2022,29(5):175 − 182. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    DU Fangzhou, SHI Xiaoqing, KANG Xueyuan. Improved method and software development for assessing NAPL phase presence in contaminated sites[J]. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2022, 29（5）: 175 − 182. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    [42] 宋美钰,施小清,康学远,等. DNAPL场地污染通量升尺度预测的敏感性分析[J]. 地质科技通报,2023,42(2):327 − 335. [SONG Meiyu,SHI Xiaoqing,KANG Xueyuan,et al. Sensitivity analysis of upscaling prediction of the mass flux at DNAPL contaminated sites[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology,2023,42(2):327 − 335. (in Chinese with English abstract)]

    Google Scholar

    SONG Meiyu, SHI Xiaoqing, KANG Xueyuan, et al. Sensitivity analysis of upscaling prediction of the mass flux at DNAPL contaminated sites[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2023, 42（2）: 327 − 335. （in Chinese with English abstract）

    Google Scholar

    • Relative Articles
  • Cited by
  • Supplements
    • Proportional views
  • 加载中
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Figures(8)

Tables(3)

Export Citation
PDF
XML

Article Metrics

Article views(74) PDF downloads(19) Cited by(0)

Access History

Other Articles By Authors

Catalog

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    版权所有：中国地质调查局发展研究中心 copyright @2020